🚀 Excited for SpaceX’s IPO today?

Before it launches (!) at 3pm UKT, join me at 2pm for 45 mins for a live Q&A with Dan McCrum, Financial Times Investigative Journalist to discuss his book Money Men, the incredible, truly wild, story of the Wirecard fraud.

🕵 Spies, collusion, fear mongering, threats, surveillance and so much more. It’s gonna be great and will run right into the SpaceX float!

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Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

In The Art of War, Sun Tzu observed:

There are not more than five musical notes, yet the combinations of them give rise to more melodies than can ever be heard.

In the equity markets, the fundamental drivers of a company’s value are similarly limited - revenue growth, margin expansion, free cash flow generation, capital return, and competitive advantage. Yet, from these basic elements, the financial industry has engineered tens of thousands of mutual funds, smart-beta ETFs, and complex portfolio strategies.

For decades, we have been sold the idea that to be “safe” investors, we must own every colour, taste, and note simultaneously. We call this diversification. But as the structure of public markets rapidly shifts, it is time to ask a difficult question: Is broad equity diversification actually protecting us, or is it just diluting the upside?

The Case For Diversification: The Only “Free Lunch”

The consensus view, rooted in Harry Markowitz’s Modern Portfolio Theory, is that diversification is the only “free lunch” in investing. The premise is mathematically sound: by combining equities that do not move in perfect lockstep, you can reduce the volatility of your portfolio without necessarily sacrificing expected returns.

Mitigating Idiosyncratic Risk: No matter how deep your research, individual companies are vulnerable to unpredictable shocks - accounting scandals (see our upcoming book club conversation), abrupt regulatory changes, or sudden technological obsolescence. Holding 30+ stocks ensures that a catastrophic failure in one business doesn’t wipe out your portfolio.

Capturing Market Beta: Broad diversification ensures you participate in the long-term upward drift of human progress and corporate profitability.

Behavioural Protection: Highly concentrated portfolios are volatile. Even if a concentrated portfolio outperforms over a ten-year horizon, the violent drawdowns along the way often cause investors to panic and sell at the exact wrong time. Diversification, in theory, smooths the ride, keeping you in the seat.

The Case Against Diversification: Protecting Against Ignorance

The counter-argument, championed by legendary investors like Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch, is that extreme diversification is simply a hedge against not knowing what you are doing.

“Diworsification”: If you have done the rigorous work to identify five truly exceptional businesses with wide moats and excellent management, why would you allocate capital to your 40th or 50th best idea? Every stock you add beyond your highest-conviction ideas dilutes your overall return.

Diluting Your Edge: In the equity market, alpha (market-beating returns) is a zero-sum game. If you hold 200 stocks, your portfolio closely mirrors the benchmark. By definition, you cannot beat the market if you *are* the market.

The Attention Deficit: A portfolio manager can deeply understand the mechanics, threats, and opportunities of 15 to 20 businesses. Nobody can intimately track the micro-economics of 150 companies.

What the Latest Research is Saying vs. The Consensus

The consensus heavily favours passive, broad-market index investing - buying the whole haystack. But recent academic research and modern market dynamics paint a more nuanced, disruptive picture of *why* markets behave the way they do.

The cornerstone of modern equity research is Hendrik Bessembinder’s landmark study, which revealed a brutal power law: just 4% of publicly traded companies account for all of the net wealth creation in the stock market above Treasury bills since 1926. The other 96% of stocks, collectively, were dead weight.

How this is interpreted depends entirely on what game you are playing and what level you are playing it at. If you have an informational or analytical edge, true wealth is generated by avoiding the dead weight, not buying it.

Why the Industry is Set Up This Way

If concentration is required for outsized returns, why does the average actively managed mutual fund hold over 50 stocks? The answer lies in the structural realities of the asset management industry.

1. Career Risk and “Tracking Error”

John Maynard Keynes famously noted that it is better for a reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally. In the institutional world, portfolio managers are judged against a benchmark (like the S&P500). If a concentrated manager is wrong and underperforms the benchmark by 15%, they lose their job. If a highly diversified manager closely hugs the benchmark and underperforms by 1.5%, they get a bonus. The industry optimizes for career survival, which mandates looking exactly like the crowd.

2. The Asset Gathering Machine

Asset management is a business of scale. Firms get paid a percentage of Assets Under Management (AUM). If a brilliant manager runs a concentrated portfolio of 15 mid-cap stocks, the strategy has strict capacity limits - if they manage too much money, they end up owning too much of the underlying companies, destroying their liquidity. To manage $50 billion, a fund *must* buy hundreds of stocks. They are diversifying not because it makes for a better portfolio, but because it is the only way to absorb more fee-paying capital.

3. Closet Indexing

Many active funds are essentially “closet indexers.” They charge active management fees but hold so many equities at weightings so close to the benchmark that they mathematically cannot justify their cost. They sell the illusion of active oversight while hiding behind the safety of extreme diversification.

The Verdict

Ultimately, determining your stance on diversification requires profound self-awareness.

If your goal is capital preservation, market-average compounding, and peace of mind, broad equity diversification is a beautiful tool. But if you are seeking genuine capital accumulation and market-beating returns, you have to acknowledge the math: alpha requires taking a differentiated stance. You cannot paint a masterpiece by blindly mixing all the colours together - you just end up with grey.

Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

In 2017, I was at my desk watching the Tesla story play out in real time. I was following analysis and opinion closely, industry analysts, fintwit analysts, office analysts. My own analysis clearly pointed to the collapse of the company at any moment. Missed guidance, shambolic production, a litany of broken promises, troves of service horror stories, high capex burn, a lack of supporting infrastructure etc. I waxed lyrical to colleagues about the imminent demise of Tesla. But, I was completely wrong. It soared to levels that were greatly disconnected from fundamentals and appropriate risk tolerances. Today it sits at $420, the eponymous 2funding secured figure. It has a market cap greater than all the other major car companies combined and commands a market cap over 14x that of peer BYD, who sell nearly 25% more EV’s than Tesla.

The Tesla experience was a vital one for me and my investment philosophy. Every now and then prices will develop in a stock or stocks that can’t be justified by optimistic fundamentals - or even visionary ones, but equally, being deadly sure that it can’t possibly last - let alone grow in value is naïve.

On June 12th, SpaceX is set to IPO in a record breaking and controversial float. It is a story of risk, genius, innovation, science fiction and above all, money.

The SpaceX story is fascinating and will undoubtedly be required reading on finance courses in the near future. It is likely to be the most valuable IPO in history by a wide margin ($2T vs Saudi Aramco in 2019 for $1.7T). Before we outline why this fits the bill for the Sun Tzu quote - The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting - we have to step back and understand the background to SpaceX.

🏗️ 2002: The Founding

Musk funded the inception and early development of SpaceX entirely himself with roughly $100 million of his own capital, which he had earned from the sale of PayPal to eBay.

During its first few years, SpaceX operated independently, aiming to prove that a small, vertically integrated team could build a cheaper, reusable rocket from scratch.

The stated, long-term goal was to make humanity multi-planetary and colonize Mars, but the immediate business problem was that traditional aerospace contractors were too expensive and moved too slowly.

🚀 2008: Orbit and Survival

By 2008, SpaceX had attempted to launch its small Falcon 1 rocket three times. All three launches had failed, and Musk was virtually out of money. Everything inged on the fourth launch succeeding in September 2008. Failure and the endeavour was over or success and the dream could continue. Thankfully, it was a success and on the back of that success and SpaceX’s participation in NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services development program, NASA awarded SpaceX a $1.6 billion Commercial Resupply Services contract in December 2008 to fly cargo to the International Space Station, effectively saving SpaceX and providing the capital to develop larger rockets.

📉 2015: The Economics Shift

7 years later in 2015, SpaceX fundamentally altered the economics of spaceflight by successfully landing the first stage of a Falcon 9 orbital rocket back on Earth. And it can’t be denied, when the light clears and we see the first stage standing upright it is a truly inspiring moment, a true leap forward for space exploration. By proving that orbital-class boosters could be recovered and reflown, rather than discarded into the ocean, SpaceX began driving launch costs down to a fraction of the competitors’. For example, since 1981 with the Space Shuttle to 2026 with SpaceX Starship, the cost of getting a kilogram to space will have fallen by a factor of over 200x, from $54k per kilo in 1981 with the Space Shuttle to c.$200 per kilo for Starship.

Historic cost of getting a kilogram to space

Source: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-cost-of-space-flight/

The cost of getting freight to space via SpaceX is now so low it can best be demonstrated by the space selfie. CrunchLabs sent a satellite into space on a SpaceX rocket for the sole purpose of allowing people to get their selfie taken in space - you can check it out here. This is truly an incredible leap in economic accessibility and SpaceX and Musk can be entirely credited with that.

🛰️2019: The Connectivity Network

On the back of the successful launch program, SpaceX launched the first operational batch of Starlink satellites into Low Earth Orbit, beginning the assembly of a mega-constellation designed to provide low-latency, high bandwidth, broadband anywhere in the world. It could even be achieved on Ryanair flights if needed but not at a cost O’Leary would tolerate.

Starlink has not been without serious concerns either - e.g. Musks influence over war zones but it has proven to be a highly profitable business.

The following year, SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft successfully carried NASA astronauts to the International Space Station, ending a nearly decade-long US reliance on Russian Soyuz rockets for crew transport.

💪 2024: Market Dominance

By 2024, SpaceX was routinely flying refurbished Falcon 9s and executing over 130 launches a year taking Starlink satellites to space along with paid slots for other companies, capturing more than 50% of the global commercial launch market. Meanwhile, the fully reusable, super-heavy-lift Starship vehicle began hitting major developmental milestones, paving the way for much heavier payloads and lunar missions. Starship will truly be a breakthrough for humanity. It is expected to be able to carry over 100 metric tonnes into space - this is important for delivery the parts needed for larger scale structures such as lunar bases, datacentres in space and the colony on Mars, Musk has dreamed of.

🤖 2026: The AI Pivot

In February 2026 the story changed however, SpaceX acquired xAI, Musk’s AI venture - more commonly known as Grok. The messaging around the combining of these businesses suggested SpaceX was no longer just a space operations company but was now going to be an artificial intelligence and orbital computing infrastructure business. The move added complexity to the vision and muddied the clear story of SpaceX but it also boosted the valuation. Some say the motivation was for a vision like never before, AI and Space under one roof but others are concerned it is a convenient way to shield the capex hungry and less attractive xAI story behind the strength of the SpaceX story.

This is where Musk is subduing the enemy without fighting.

People associate SpaceX with launch services - in which they have a monopoly. Starlink and xAI however, are most certainly not monopolies. Starlink is profitable with a good future ahead of it but faces competition from domestic telecoms and data networks. xAI is in a land war with Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, Meta and a host of Chinese AI models and only a few will survive when the dust has settled. It is also devouring capital and revenue growth is patchy at best. By putting xAI into SpaceX that story has been shifted and is no longer part of the hyperscaler land war conversation but now part of the inspiring sci-fi story. Bold visions sell stocks and Musk knows this. But what of the numbers? Let’s look at the basic headline figures.

Estimated valuation of SpaceX (launch services + Starlink + xAI) on IPO - $2trillion

Based on these numbers and accounting for the rate of growth currently being experienced, it would take 11.5 years for REVENUES to reach $2 trillion, let alone profits. That’s also assuming that growth momentum continues at the current pace which it rarely does. It is one of the more stretched valuations you will find, going well beyond the “priced to perfection” label that is often associated with such valuations. I would go as far as to say that the valuation of $2T is a nonsense compared to fundamentals but that is not to say it will not hold its value or even grow.

As I learned through my Tesla experience and as was discussed in our recent Boom and Bust conversation with John Turner and William Quinn, these dynamics occur with some regularity.

THE MUSK EFFECT

The Musk premium is an important factor. The combination of the great vision laid out, his previous achievements in innovation, his cult-like following and his history of delivering incredible stock performance against all odds are all in play. Maybe not as brightly as was with Tesla or maybe there is a new guard of devotees minted in the last few years who can send SpaceX stock - to the moon.

NAUGHTY NASDAQ

A second factor, which has been a controversial one is how Nasdaq have altered the rules to include SpaceX into the Nasdaq-100. They changed three major rules to win the SpaceX listing and they are worth understanding because structurally they enhance the probability of SpaceX performing.

SEASONING - Historically, companies were required to trade publicly for three to 12 months before they were eligible to be added to the Nasdaq-100. This “seasoning” period existed to allow the market to discover the stock’s true price before passive index funds were forced to buy it but for SpaceX, Nasdaq introduced a “Fast Entry” rule that allows megacap stocks to be added to the index just 15 trading days after their IPO. The consequence is that there is a 15 day window of free price action - not typically enough to find a proper level - before the passive tap is switched on and the wave of passive flows bouy and boost the price.

FREE-FLOAT - Nasdaq eliminated the rule requiring a minimum 10% free float for index inclusion, clearing the way for companies with massive valuations but tightly held ownership to join immediately. Because SpaceX is expected to float only about 5% of its total equity at listing, it would have failed Nasdaq’s previous requirements. Only having 5% of your shares setting the price is a structural advantage as that 5% sets the price for whole 100%, largely held by Musk. If the buyers of the 5% are predominantly fanboys who are not interested in fundamentals and passive funds then the level is likely to be distorted upward.

INDEX WEIGHTING - The Nasdaq-100 has been until now a market-cap-weighted index but if they included SpaceX, with only 5% of shares of a $2T market cap available to buy, this would cause a host of problems. As passive indexes buy shares to try replicate the index they would be driving demand for the shares through the roof as there would not be enough shares for them all to fulfil their allocations. To mitigate this, Nasdaq introduced a rule that if the available amount of shares is less than 33% of the total shares in a company, the market cap would be 3x the valuation of the listed shares valuation (i.e. 5% x 3). It could still cause some issues and will need to be watched.

WINDOW of ACCOUNTABILITY

Another advantage to Musk and the stock price is the inherent timeline to Space. 11.5 years (for revenues to reach valuation) isn’t a long time when it comes to space, things take time - even SpaceX will take time to get things done. This dynamic works to the advantage of lofty valuations and promises of them delivering science fiction like outcomes in the future. If the valuation ultimately gets accepted by the market - which is likely due to the gaming of the Nasdaq rules, then Musk has vastly wider time horizons to keep the story spinning than he did with Tesla, where, for example, missed visions of autonomous vehicles and cybertrucks could only be excused for so many quarters.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the valuation is a nonsense. That rules me out of buying it. But I would also not short it. The structural elements at play mean this IPO has been engineered to maximise upside and minimise downside. In addition, the exuberance from those who idolise Musk and believe wholeheartedly in his ability to deliver science fiction in a matter of years will keep the stock elevated. I believe that it is very probable that the SpaceX stock price defies gravity and goes ad astra. But I won’t be onboard.

SLIGHT BREAK WHILE BUILDING PHASE 2

Firstly, thank you immensely for being a subscriber to BREAKINGWATERS, I hope you are enjoying the content. This week I will be busy enhancing existing features and implementing new initiatives so normal service is reduced.

SPAM / ALOT

I also wanted to contact you directly because some people reported that they had not been receiving the emails. If you haven’t been receiving them regularly, can I ask you to look for “BREAKINGWATERS” in your spam folder and elevate it to your inbox so you get the emails going forward.

Some have also mentioned receiving too many emails at times which I have a plan to address.

4 MONTHS IN

I started BREAKINGWATERS just 4 months ago and I wanted to highlight some of what has been delivered in the four months.

SURPASSED 100 SUBSCRIBERS

People have been responding to the content and, subscriptions have been rising which is amazing. Some have even taken the step to sign up for a paid subscription (£3.99/mo or £39.99/yr)where I aim to offer deeper, more valuable content.

EXPERT-in-CONVERSATION SERIES (here)

William De Gale, Bluebox AM Tech Fund - we discussed AI and the Saaspocalypse. William was sceptical about the AI rally and equally the SaaS decline, noting that EPS estimates were expected to continue growing even while stock prices continued to fall. 3 months later, major SaaS names reported earnings that beat - already high growth - estimates (chart below).

Mikhail Zverev, Amati Global Innovation Fund - we discussed the next big thing and Mikhail outlined 2 areas they were focused on as real, happening now and technologically inevitable: photonics and memory.

He named Lumentum (LITE) as the name they liked in photonics - it’s up 38% since that call while memory - as measured by the Roundhill Memory ETF - is up 127%.

Alyx Wood, CIO Kernow AM - we looked at the UK (long and short) and Alyx outlined a compelling case for the UK. He also highlighted some names he likes (named below).

The audience has been coming from across the industry with some excellent organisations in attendance:

Books & Breakdowns (here)

We began a book club focusing on books that we can take learnings from for our investing. We also want them to be entertaining and I will do my best to get the author to join us for a Q&A at the end.

We have read The Man Who Solved the Market by Gregory Zuckerman and then BOOM and BUST with FT Book of the Year Winners John Turner and William Quinn, which was a truly fantastic conversation at the end. We learned so much about bubbles but especially useful is their framework for identifying bubbles - the fire triangle - Marketability, Money/Credit and Speculation.

I am in the process of selecting the next book and author so watch out for that. I have also posted several breakdowns of industry papers and have some good ones in the pipeline.

+ The Coming Wave (here) + How the Wave Broke (here) + Sun Tzu-esday (here) + Thought Pieces

I have these regular items coming out each week to map the moving landscape of markets. I will continue to enhance and improve the experience and have

some plans for how to elevate them even further beyond how they are currrently delivered.

Hints of Alpha

This is not investment advice nor is anything produced by BREAKINGWATERS but I wanted to bring your attention to some of the insights that have been delivered across the content. In some cases it can be hugely valuable.

In our conversation with William De Gale he highlighted that the Saaspocalypse may be over run, in fact these stocks may break the other way, benefitting most from AI. Although early, a sign of this is the anomaly of SaaS earnings estimates vs their YTD stock price movement:

but we should also note that the average P/E for these companies - Salesforce (CRM), Workday (WDAY), ServiceNow (NOW), Hubspot (HUBS), Atlassian (TEAM) and Adobe (ADBE), excluding the loss making Atlassian - is 54x vs NASDAQs 35.3x so still well priced.

Mikhail in our session on innovation highlighted Photonics and Memory stocks and naming Lumentum (LITE) as one of their holdings. Since the conversation, Lumentum (LITE) is up 38% and memory - represented by the Roundhill Memory ETF is up 127%.

Alyx in our session on the UK outlined some opportunities he is seeing, specifically, CMC markets, Clarkson PLC and Kistos. They have not moved which since our recent conversation but he has high conviction on these names.

SOCIALS

Phase 1 has been about laying the foundations of the content with some social media activity. We are on YouTube and Spotify with others being tentatively used.

Phase 2 plans to be far more active in its social media activity with a dedicated approach leveraging AI to deliver the right format and build engagement.

COMING SOON

On June 12th we have Dan McCrum, FT Investigative journalist joining us to talk about his book, Money Men which was our May book and details the story of the payments fraud, Wirecard. If you’re worried you don’t have enough time now to read the book then you’re in luck, there’s also a Netflix documentary, Skandal! Bringing Down Wirecard to get you up to speed.

I am in the process of lining up the next book and the author Q&A as well as the next Expert-in-Conversation speaker so watch this space. I also have a couple of really cool breakdowns coming and an analysis on SpaceX in Tuesdays Sun Tzu-esday so watch out for that.

It has been a great start to creating an amazing equity investing community where members can learn, gain insights, improve returns and ultimately enjoy their investing journey. I want to thank all those for being part of it.

Also, I am always open to thoughts, suggestions or criticism so please be encouraged to send on any you have.

Best,

Bryan

Director, BREAKINGWATERS

bryan@breakingwaters.com

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Sources: Fiscal.ai, Google Finance, 24 May 2026.

THE VIDEO BRIEF

THE AUDIO BRIEF

THE SUMMARY

Next week presents a critical line-up of corporate earnings and global economic data.

Next week’s earnings are heavily weighted toward technology and the ongoing artificial intelligence narrative. Companies like Meta Platforms, Marvell Technology, Salesforce, and Palo Alto Networks are expected to report strong growth driven by AI networking, cloud integration, and digital advertising demand. Strong performances from these tech giants could indirectly boost broader market optimism in the semiconductor supply chain, data center infrastructure, and cybersecurity sectors.

On the consumer side, reports from PDD Holdings, Xiaomi, Costco, and Kering will offer insights into global retail. Watch for indirect impacts on global e-commerce supply chains and the electric vehicle market, as Xiaomi’s growth is increasingly tied to its EV product diversification

The economic calendar centers on Q1 GDP data for the US and Canada, alongside crucial May inflation updates for France, Italy, and Germany.

• Interest Rates & Manufacturing: If US GDP growth beats the 2.00% estimate, it could bolster equities but reignite fears of higher interest rates, which indirectly impacts domestic manufacturing and rate-sensitive tech sectors.

• European Monetary Policy: If inflation runs hot across Germany, France, and Italy, it could pressure the European Central Bank into monetary tightening. This would indirectly weigh heavily on European retail, banking, and industrial segments.

Indirect Impact of Geopolitics and Energy. A recurring theme across next week’s economic read-across is the indirect impact of Middle East tensions and fluctuating energy prices. These geopolitical factors are highlighted as significant risks that could squeeze chemical producers like BASF, weigh on consumer spending in Japan, and drive volatility in the defense and energy-sensitive sectors

TOP 10 GLOBAL EARNINGS RELEASES this WEEK COMING

KEY ECONOMIC PRINTS this WEEK COMING

EARNINGS & ECONOMICS & THEIR READ ACROSS

~~~ Monday 25 May ~~~

Palo Alto Networks - Analysts expect Palo Alto Networks to report year-over-year growth in its upcoming earnings. This positive outlook is driven by strong cybersecurity spending, platform integration, and momentum in AI-enhanced security solutions, which continue to support robust demand and investor optimism.

PDD Holdings - Analysts expect PDD Holdings to report continued revenue growth. This is driven by Temu’s rapid international scaling and solid domestic gains, balanced against investor concerns over rising competition and shifting regulatory landscapes in the global e-commerce sector.

~~~ Tuesday 26 May ~~~

Xiaomi - Analysts expect Xiaomi to report strong growth in its upcoming earnings. This positive outlook is driven by robust demand for its new electric vehicles and a recovery in global smartphone shipments, reflecting the company’s successful product diversification strategies.

Viking Holdings - Analysts expect Viking Holdings to report strong growth in its upcoming earnings. This optimism is driven by high travel demand, increased occupancy rates, and expanded fleet capacity, although potential economic shifts and rising operational costs remain key points of monitoring.

~~~ Wednesday 27 May ~~~

Meta Platforms - Analysts expect Meta Platforms to report strong earnings growth. This optimism stems from robust digital advertising demand, particularly within its Reels and Advantage+ platforms, alongside disciplined cost management and ongoing investments in artificial intelligence to drive user engagement.

Marvell Technology - Analysts expect Marvell Technology to report strong growth in its upcoming earnings. This optimistic outlook is driven by robust demand for AI networking, custom processors, and data center infrastructure, specifically within optical interconnects for cloud service providers.

Salesforce - Analysts expect Salesforce to show growth in its upcoming earnings. This positive outlook is driven by strong cloud service demand and increased integration of artificial intelligence, although analysts remain cautious regarding broader enterprise spending and macroeconomic headwinds.

~~~ Thursday 28 May ~~~

Costco Wholesale - Analysts expect Costco Wholesale to report year-over-year growth in its upcoming earnings. This positive outlook is driven by consistent membership renewals, steady foot traffic, and strong digital sales momentum, despite high market expectations and a premium valuation.

United States GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q1 - An above-estimate United States GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q1 could bolster equity markets, though it might spark concerns over higher interest rates. Investors should focus on domestic manufacturing and technology sectors. Ongoing trade tensions and global supply chain shifts remain significant factors for future growth.

~~~ Friday 29 May ~~~

BASF - Analysts expect BASF to report improved earnings driven by cost-cutting measures and a recovery in demand within its core chemical segments. Optimism stems from stabilizing energy prices and strategic restructuring efforts aimed at boosting profitability amid global economic shifts.

Kering - Analysts expect Kering to report growth in its upcoming earnings. This positive outlook is driven by anticipated sequential improvements and the unlocking of sustainable growth phases, despite recent bearish sentiment and downward revisions to some previous performance estimates.

Trump Media & Technology Group - Analysts expect Trump Media & Technology Group to experience significant volatility. Projections are driven by its association with Donald Trump, user growth on Truth Social, and its potential as a meme stock rather than traditional financial fundamentals.

Japan Consumer Confidence MAY - If Japan Consumer Confidence for May exceeds estimates, equity markets could rise as consumer-oriented sectors gain momentum. A lower reading might signal a slowdown in domestic spending. Recent Middle East tensions and rising energy costs could weigh on future sentiment, making retail and discretionary sectors particularly sensitive.

France Inflation Rate YoY Prel MAY - If France Inflation Rate YoY Prel MAY exceeds estimates, equity markets could decline as the ECB might accelerate rate hikes. Conversely, a lower reading would support stability. Investors should focus on energy-sensitive sectors and defense. Ongoing Middle East tensions and high fuel prices remain significant future drivers.

Italy Inflation Rate YoY Prel MAY - If Italy Inflation Rate YoY Prel MAY exceeds estimates, equity markets could face pressure from potential ECB rate hikes. A lower reading might boost consumer-facing sectors. Investors should focus on European retail and banking. Recent energy price volatility and geopolitical tensions remain key risks to future inflation trends.

Germany Inflation Rate YoY Prel MAY - If Germany Inflation Rate YoY Prel MAY exceeds estimates, equity markets could face pressure as expectations for ECB monetary tightening increase. Investors should watch rate-sensitive sectors and industrial segments. Middle East geopolitical tensions and rising energy costs remain key drivers that could impact future inflation readings.

Canada GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q1 - If Canada GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q1 exceeds estimates, equity markets could rise as the central bank might delay rate cuts. A lower reading could signal economic fragility. Investors should watch manufacturing and energy sectors. Ongoing Middle East tensions and trade uncertainty could impact future growth momentum.

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Sources: Fiscal.ai, Google Finance, 23 May 2026.

THE VIDEO BRIEF

THE AUDIO BRIEF

THE RUNDOWN

European markets trended higher this week as optimism grew regarding potential US-Iran peace talks and a de-escalation of Middle East tensions. The Euro Stoxx 50 led with a 2.9% gain, buoyed by a strong rotation into AI-related tech stocks like ASML and Nokia.

Germany’s DAX 40 rose 2.4%, supported by positive domestic business climate data and industrial strength, while the Swiss Market Exchange gained 2.0% due to solid luxury sector earnings, notably from Richemont.

The CAC 40 increased 1.6%, though it lagged slightly as concerns over high-end consumer demand and regional inflation persisted. Spain’s IBEX 35 rose 1.3%, trailing peers as broader economic uncertainty and energy price fluctuations weighed on the domestic outlook.

Overall, while geopolitical risks remain, markets benefited from a pullback in bond yields and hopes for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

MOVERS AND SHAKERS

RISERS

• ASML Holding (ASML NA) manufactures chipmaking equipment and fell up to 7.1% due to new US export controls and geopolitical uncertainty regarding sales to China.

• Infineon Technologies (IFX GY) produces semiconductors and fell as part of a 1.6% drop in the DAX 40 amid regional geopolitical tensions and inflation fears.

• Ferrari (RACE IM) produces luxury performance cars and its stock dropped over 16% this month following suspended deliveries due to conflict in the Middle East.

FALLERS

• Munich Re (MUV2.DE) is a global reinsurer whose shares fell 3.06% following Q1 investment-related headwinds and market volatility impacting its fixed income portfolio.

• Eni (ENI.MI) is an integrated energy company that fell 2.92% amid general market movements and geopolitical tensions affecting global oil price stability.

• Ahold Delhaize (AD.AS) is a retail supermarket group that declined 2.60% due to concerns over inflation and falling consumer sentiment impacting purchasing power.

SECTORS

European markets surged this week, led by Technology (8.25%) as AI infrastructure momentum and Nokia’s new partnerships fueled gains. Real Estate (3.23%) and Financials (2.95%) rose as investors anticipated ECB monetary easing despite persistent inflation. Conversely, the Energy sector fell 1.37% as markets weighed the impact of the Middle East conflict on corporate margins, with pressure on TotalEnergies and Eni. While Industrials (2.06%) benefited from increased defense spending, consumer sectors remained resilient despite high energy prices. Overall, the STOXX Europe 600 climbed toward 625, testing highs not seen since the conflict began.

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Sources: Fiscal.ai, Google Finance, 23 May 2026.

THE VIDEO BRIEF

THE AUDIO BRIEF

THE RUNDOWN

North American markets saw broad gains this past week, driven by cooling inflation fears and geopolitical optimism. The Russell 2000 led with a 3.4% rise as buyers defended support levels and smaller caps benefited from easing Treasury yields.

The Dow Jones Industrial rose 1.8%, reaching a record high as progress in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations lowered energy prices and boosted sentiment. The Nasdaq 100 gained 1.7%, supported by a rebound in semiconductor stocks like Qualcomm ahead of Nvidia’s earnings.

The S&P 500 climbed 1.0%, recording its eighth consecutive weekly gain behind strong momentum in artificial intelligence-linked technology. In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite rose 2.2%, bolstered by its significant exposure to the energy sector, which saw gains despite volatile crude prices.

Overall, the easing of the 10-year Treasury yield provided a necessary tailwind for valuations across these diverse benchmarks.

MOVERS AND SHAKERS

RISERS

• Dell Technologies (DELL US) provides AI servers and hardware, rising 24.01% due to strong AI infrastructure demand and positive analyst sentiment ahead of its upcoming earnings report.

• HP Inc. (HPQ US) manufactures personal computers and printers, rising 20.65% as strong quarterly results from Lenovo boosted investor optimism for a global PC market recovery.

• Skyworks Solutions (SWKS US) produces wireless semiconductors, rising 17.16% amid a broad semiconductor sector rally and optimism regarding mobile RF content gains and Android design wins.

FALLERS

• Intuit (INTU) provides financial software and fell -20.64% after reporting fiscal earnings and announcing a workforce reduction to focus on artificial intelligence.

• Walmart (WMT) operates retail stores and declined -9.80% after issuing cautious guidance and citing high fuel costs as a drag on future earnings.

• EchoStar (SATS) offers satellite and wireless services and dropped -8.98% due to ongoing subscriber losses and broader sector weakness affecting communications stocks.

SECTORS

Technology gained 3.46% as AI-driven demand and hardware surged, while Utilities rose 3.21% on defensive positioning. Consumer Discretionary climbed 2.46% behind digital transformation trends. Conversely, Energy fell 1.80% as a surprise EIA report and record U.S. production outweighed geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Communication Services dropped 1.30% due to advertising exposure risks and high concentration. Consumer Staples declined 1.28% as investors favored growth over defensive stability. Health Care rose 2.86%, benefiting from a rotation into defensive areas as the economy showed signs of slowing. Real Estate added 1.85% amid shifting interest rate expectations.

Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Nvidia’s market cap currently sits at 5.46T, larger than the annual GDP of every country in the world except the US and China and larger than all the markets in the world except US, China and Japan. Microsoft has a market cap of over $3 trillion, Apple $4.3T and Google $4.8T. AI has driven incredible amounts of paper value on these stocks alongside very real capex expenses.

Source: Apollo Global Management, Putting the total amount of hyperscaler capex into perspective Feb 2026

It is a gold rush, some companies are buying mines and some are selling picks and shovels. Nvidia are in the envious position of selling the picks and shovels and even more enviable is that they sell the best picks and best shovels and everyone wants the best. They have more control over their outcomes than those buying mines and hoping to find gold.

The war is happening between the miners, the hyperscalers, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, IBM, Oracle and increasingly OpenAI and Anthropic. They see a golden future, they’re not quite sure how much gold there could be but they are confident there should be gold on the other side. They are unlikely to all be right, some mines have gold and some don’t but people are excited and they don’t want to miss out they wager it’s better to back anything than nothing. This is not a good strategy.

Sam Altman recently said, “Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes. Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes.

In our recent BREAKINGWATERS Boom and Bust conversation on bubbles, it was clear that the AI rush closely resembles a bubble but, as with all bubbles, it has it’s own unique characteristics. William Quinn, co-author of Boom and Bust and, senior lecturer on bubbles, noted that one of the key differences here is that the capital in this instance is not coming from the everyday investors. It is mostly a mix of corporate bonds, private credit and sovereign fund capital being deployed to the cause. A lot is off balance sheet too. Professor John Turner, the other co-author noted that this may also be a politically driven bubble masquerading as a technology bubble - when Deepseek burst onto the scene with a step change in performance for a fraction of the cost, many have declared we are in an AI cold war - see this headline from the Washington Post a few days ago.

This war is putting huge pressure on the players involved. Cash is being hoovered up, debts levels are skyrocketing and all in the name of, at this time, unclear investor value creation (there is clearly value creation to consumers). There is no doubt that revenues are rising fast but this is not a fait accompli for success for investors.

AI is starting to look like it will be a utility for life, like the internet or smartphones, it will become a necessity of the everyday for everyone. Utilities though tend not to be very attractive investments. For the internet and smartphones cycles, the value went to those that built on top of the infrastructure. Apple was an exception in the amount of value it could extract from it’s hardware, a result of it’s magical marketing (see this Sun Tzu-esday) but in general the ones that made the most money were software, search, social media and market places. Low capex, high profit.

In this new cycle we are already seeing some bifurcation of roles. Anthropic are leaning towards off the shelf enterprise solutions by passing a host of specialist providers that have popped up. Open AI is where everyone started but, if my anecdotal conversations are right, people are drifting and trying other models. Most seem to land on Anthropic’s Claude or Gemini or a combination of both. I use Gemini I have never had no reason to try anything else. I have used ChatGPT and it wasn’t as good, it gave so so answers or at times it just couldn’t deliver an answer, something I have never experienced on Gemini (an indication of Google’s infrastructural advantage). The other options are Chinese AI providers and Tencent, Alibaba and others are in their own regional war. They are tending towards a lower cost or in some cases free model. Deepseek have aimed for a cost efficient offering too.

These hyperscalers must continue to spend to try eek out a lead and that is their primary focus in this phase, grab share and worry about everything else after that. Making money is a problem to be figured out once they have won the space. This clip from Silicon Valley gives an insight into how the thinking works in Silicon Valley.

The longer it goes on the more damaging it will be to the long term prospects of the “nations” involved as they burn ever more capital in pursuit of the goal. It has the hallmarks of the telecoms arms race which ended with a slew of lumbering debt laden utility-like giants that were unattractive investments and ultimately created little value for investors. Absolutely, not all players will survive this build out, they will either be wiped out altogether - I am thinking of the more fragile businesses who need more pieces to deliver the goal (capital, infrastructure, distribution) or they will be severely damaged and their hands tied with debt like the once dominate telecoms.

I have no doubt that there is a transition started in the global order of companies. Every couple of decades, new businesses rise up to dominate for a long cycle and I think we are at the beginning of this. There will be a business that unlocks a use case with AI that is low capex, high take up, high profit with a flywheel that will roll them into the future unlocking further profit channels. I don’t know what that is yet but I am watching. It’s important too to realise you don’t have to see it before anyone else for it to work, you can still make a lot of money if you miss the first rally, there is time - just listen to Peter Lynch:

As I look across the landscape, I do have thoughts on what I am seeing - paid subscribers only

Read more

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Sources: Fiscal.ai, Google Finance, 15 May 2026.

THE VIDEO BRIEF

THE AUDIO BRIEF

THE SUMMARY

Next week presents a critical line-up of corporate earnings and global economic data.

On the earnings front, retail and artificial intelligence are in the spotlight. Walmart reports on Monday and Thursday, offering crucial insights into budget-conscious consumer spending and grocery sales amidst economic caution. In the tech sector, major players like Alibaba, Tencent, and SoftBank will reveal the financial impact of their recent strategic shifts toward AI and cloud computing. The standout is NVIDIA on Wednesday, where massive demand for AI chips and expanding data center requirements are expected to drive strong growth. Meta Platforms will highlight digital advertising trends, while Siemens provides a pulse on industrial automation.

Economically, the week begins with China’s Industrial Production and Retail Sales, which could sway high-tech manufacturing and consumer discretionary sectors globally. Tuesday features Japan’s GDP and UK Unemployment, potentially altering central bank rate timelines and impacting Japanese exporters and UK consumer sectors. Midweek inflation reports from Canada and the UK, alongside Japan’s on Friday, will heavily influence expectations for interest rate cuts and central bank hawkishness. Thursday brings Germany’s Manufacturing PMI and US Housing Starts, clarifying European industrial health and domestic real estate demand.

Broadly, these reports will indirectly impact several key themes. Ongoing Middle East tensions are flagged as a continuous risk that could inject volatility into energy sectors and global supply chains, notably affecting inflation metrics and manufacturing data across multiple countries. Furthermore, outcomes in US housing could heavily sway homebuilders and building materials sectors, while Japanese trade data might cause indirect ripples across the global semiconductor industry.

TOP 10 GLOBAL EARNINGS RELEASES this WEEK COMING

KEY ECONOMIC PRINTS this WEEK COMING

EARNINGS & ECONOMICS & THEIR READ ACROSS

~~~ Monday 18 May ~~~

Walmart - Analysts expect Walmart to report year-over-year growth in its upcoming earnings. This positive outlook is driven by strong grocery sales, gains in e-market share, and increased advertising revenue, despite ongoing concerns regarding cautious consumer spending on discretionary items.

Tencent Holdings - Analysts expect Tencent Holdings to report increased year-over-year profits. This optimistic outlook is driven by strong gaming demand, advertising growth, and improved margins across its business segments, reflecting robust operating momentum despite a challenging macroeconomic environment.

Alibaba Group Holding - Analysts expect Alibaba Group Holding to report positive results driven by a recovery in Chinese consumer spending and strong international growth. Optimism is further supported by the company’s strategic focus on artificial intelligence and cloud computing service expansions.

Sea - Analysts expect Sea Limited to report strong revenue growth in its upcoming report. This positive outlook is driven by increased e-commerce penetration, improved margins in digital financial services, and steady user engagement across its gaming platforms.

China Industrial Production YoY APR - If China Industrial Production YoY for April exceeds estimates, equity markets could rise, though potential monetary tightening might follow. A lower reading could signal slowing growth. Investors should watch high-tech manufacturing and equipment sectors. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could impact future production momentum.

China Retail Sales YoY APR - If China Retail Sales YoY APR exceeds estimates, it could bolster equity markets by signaling stronger domestic demand. A miss might pressure stocks, suggesting persistent consumer caution. Investors should monitor consumer discretionary and tech sectors. Recent trade-in policies and ongoing property market weakness could influence this metric’s trajectory.

~~~ Tuesday 19 May ~~~

SoftBank Group - Analysts expect SoftBank Group to report improved financial results in its upcoming earnings report. This positive outlook is driven by a recovery in the valuations of its technology investments and continued strategic shifts toward artificial intelligence-focused ventures.

Japan GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1 - If the Japan GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1 exceeds estimates, it could bolster Japanese equities and pressure the central bank toward earlier rate hikes. Conversely, a miss might weaken the yen. Investors should watch exporters and energy sectors, as Middle East tensions and higher oil prices pose risks.

United Kingdom Unemployment Rate MAR - If the United Kingdom Unemployment Rate MAR exceeds estimates, equity markets could face pressure as the Bank of England might delay rate cuts. A lower rate could boost consumer-discretionary sectors. Recent surges in economic inactivity and falling payroll numbers could impact this metric by tightening the available labor pool.

Canada Inflation Rate YoY APR - If the Canada Inflation Rate YoY APR exceeds forecasts, it could delay interest rate cuts, weighing on equity markets. A lower result might support rate relief. Investors should monitor energy and consumer sectors. Recent Middle East tensions and fuel tax changes are currently impacting headline price volatility.

~~~ Wednesday 20 May ~~~

NVIDIA - Analysts expect NVIDIA to report strong growth in its upcoming earnings report. This optimism is driven by massive demand for artificial intelligence chips, expanding data center requirements, and the company’s leading position in the high-performance computing market.

Meta Platforms - Analysts expect Meta Platforms to report strong earnings growth in its upcoming report. This positive outlook is fueled by robust advertising demand, increased engagement across its social media platforms, and improved monetization of its newer video features.

United Kingdom Inflation Rate YoY APR - If the United Kingdom Inflation Rate YoY APR exceeds forecasts, it could trigger interest rate hikes, pressuring equities. Conversely, a lower reading might allow for earlier rate cuts. Investors should monitor consumer staples and energy. Recent Middle East tensions and surging fuel prices could further elevate this metric.

~~~ Thursday 21 May ~~~

Walmart - Analysts expect Walmart to report strong earnings growth, driven by robust grocery sales and increased e-commerce traffic. Their positive outlook stems from the company’s ability to attract budget-conscious consumers through competitive pricing and expanded delivery services.

Siemens Aktiengesellschaft - Analysts expect Siemens Aktiengesellschaft to report strong year-over-year growth in its upcoming earnings. This positive outlook is driven by robust demand in industrial automation and digitalization sectors, alongside improved profit margins across its core business segments.

Japan Balance of Trade APR - If the Japan Balance of Trade APR exceeds estimates, it could bolster the yen and encourage a more hawkish Bank of Japan stance. A lower outcome might weigh on domestic sentiment. Investors should watch export-oriented tech and semiconductors. Recent Middle East conflicts and high energy prices could impact imports.

Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash MAY - If the Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash MAY exceeds estimates, it could bolster industrial and automotive stocks while signaling potential hawkishness from the ECB. A lower outcome would likely dampen sentiment across Eurozone equities. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to drive supply chain uncertainty and cost pressures.

United States Housing Starts APR - If United States Housing Starts APR exceeds estimates, it could bolster homebuilder stocks and cyclicals. A lower reading might signal cooling demand, potentially softening central bank rate outlooks. Investors should watch the Sunbelt and building materials sectors. Recent Middle East tensions and rising material costs could dampen future construction.

~~~ Friday 22 May ~~~

Japan Inflation Rate YoY APR - If Japan Inflation Rate YoY APR exceeds estimates, it could prompt the central bank to hike interest rates, potentially weighing on equities. Investors should monitor energy and technology sectors. Recent Middle East tensions and currency volatility remain significant factors that could influence future inflationary pressures.nley.

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Sources: Fiscal.ai, Google Finance, 16 May 2026.

THE VIDEO BRIEF

THE AUDIO BRIEF

THE RUNDOWN

European markets faced a challenging week, with most major indices closing in the red. The DAX 40 dropped 1.6%, while the CAC 40 fell 1.3%, primarily due to stalled progress in the Iran conflict and heightened inflation fears.

These geopolitical tensions and risk of military escalation also weighed on the Euro Stoxx 50, which declined 1.1%. Similarly, Spain’s IBEX 35 fell 1.3%, reflecting broader regional sentiment.

In contrast, the Swiss Market Exchange rose 0.9%, benefiting from its more defensive composition as investors sought stability amidst the volatility affecting industrial and luxury-heavy neighbors.

While the German and French markets were pressured by their heavy exposure to energy-dependent manufacturing and global trade uncertainties, the Swiss market’s resilience highlights the divergence in performance based on sector concentration and risk appetite during this period of geopolitical instability.

MOVERS AND SHAKERS

RISERS

• Infineon Technologies is a semiconductor manufacturer that rose 5.50% following strong tech sector gains and investor optimism regarding artificial intelligence and power chip demand.

• EssilorLuxottica is a global eyewear company that climbed 3.74% as markets responded positively to its growing smart glasses segment despite recent broader market volatility.

• Adidas is a sportswear designer and retailer that gained 2.82% after reporting strong quarterly sales and earnings that beat analyst estimates.

FALLERS

• Automaker BMW fell 8.03% due to a slump in China sales, high production costs, and a costly recall involving 1.5 million vehicles' braking systems.

• Defense contractor Rheinmetall dropped 5.53% after missing first-quarter revenue and profit expectations despite a growing order backlog driven by global security tensions.

• Reinsurer Munich Re declined 5.27% after deliberately reducing premium volumes during renewals and facing downward price pressure in the property catastrophe business.

SECTORS

Utilities fell 4.50% and Industrials dropped 3.06% this week as higher borrowing costs weighed on capital-heavy industries. Basic Resources also slid 2.98% amid concerns over slowing global manufacturing demand. In contrast, Food & Beverage climbed 1.74% as a defensive play, while Health Care rose 0.63% and Technology gained 0.37% on selective resilience. These shifts reflect a defensive rotation as investors navigate economic uncertainty. Energy saw a marginal 0.23% rise, cushioned by steady oil prices.

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Sources: Fiscal.ai, Google Finance, 16 May 2026.

THE VIDEO BRIEF

THE AUDIO BRIEF

THE RUNDOWN

U.S. markets broadly pulled back this week, with the S&P 500 falling -0.1% and the Dow Jones Industrial dropping -0.4%.

Investor sentiment was dampened by uncertainty over Federal Reserve interest rate policy and rising 10-year Treasury yields, which hit a one-year high. This particularly pressured the Nasdaq 100, down -0.7%, as high-flying chip and AI stocks like Nvidia and Intel faced profit-taking and caution ahead of earnings.

Small-cap stocks saw the steepest decline, with the Russell 2000 falling -2.7%, reflecting their sensitivity to macroeconomic signals and interest rate volatility.

Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite fell -0.9%, weighed down by its significant exposure to the energy and materials sectors. While crude oil prices surged over 3%, metal prices for copper, gold, and silver backtracked significantly, hurting mining firms.

Broad selling pressure across most sectors suggests a cautious shift toward defensive strategies as markets navigate these inflationary concerns.

MOVERS AND SHAKERS

RISERS

• Cisco, a software and networking giant, surged 19.74% after reporting strong third-quarter results and raising its annual AI infrastructure order forecast to $9 billion.

• Palo Alto Networks, a cybersecurity firm, climbed 13.65% following strong results from peer Fortinet and bullish analyst price target increases citing robust platform momentum.

• Humana, a health insurance provider, rose 11.25% after reporting a first-quarter medical loss ratio that beat expectations and improved Medicare Advantage rate outlooks.

FALLERS

• Chipmaker Intel fell 15.97% due to concerns over losing server market share to competitors and significant operating losses within its foundry division.

• Semiconductor designer Qualcomm dropped 15.17% following a weak forecast driven by a global memory shortage and market share losses at Apple.

• Lithium producer Albemarle Corporation slid 14.10% as investors reacted to an $820 million charge from closing an Australian refinery and ongoing lithium price volatility.

SECTORS

Energy gained 3.97% this week as heightened geopolitical tensions drove oil prices higher. Investors simultaneously shifted toward defensive positions, lifting Consumer Staples by 1.52% and Health Care by 1.44%. In contrast, Materials fell 3.75% and Real Estate dropped 3.01% as persistent inflation fears and rising Treasury yields pressured rate-sensitive sectors. Utilities declined 2.81% due to increased borrowing costs. Technology slipped 0.91% as growth-stock enthusiasm moderated, while Consumer Discretionary fell 2.38% on signs of slowing consumer demand.

Also available on YouTube and Spotify.

Thank you to everyone who joined this session for our April book, the FT book of the year, Boom and Bust with the authors John Turner and William Quinn.

The authors have dedicated their careers to researching Bubbles and this book brings together some of their foremost thinking. They pick through 10 bubbles from history and analyse the mechanics, the people, and the fallout from each. They land on a framework for recognising bubbles, akin to the heat triangle of fuel, heat and oxygen following a spark, they use Monet/Credit, Speculation and Marketability and they outline how it applies in the bubbles they have chosen.

The running order is as follows:

1. 00:00 - 02:55 | Intro

2. 02:55 - 05:00 | Spark & Nuance

3. 05:00 - 08:31 | Innovative Scots

4. 08:31 - 13:04 | Application to Investing

5. 13:04 - 15:05 | Author Conversation - Intro

6. 15:05 - 16:30 | The Heat Triangle Framework

7. 16:30 - 18:28 | Examples of Political Sparks

8. 18:28 - 20:02 | Reaching for Yield

9. 21:20 - 22:20 | Stages of a bubble

10. 22:20 - 23:50 | The right type of bubble

11. 23:50 - 25:25 | I want to ride my bicycle….shares

12. 25:25 - 27:20 | John Law, not Wellington, defeated Napoleon

13. 27:20 - 30:15 | The role and incentive of Journalism

14. 30:15 - 31:40 | Gregor McGregor King of Poyais

15. 31:40 - 35:19 | Railways, an infrastructure capex bubble

16. 35:19 - 40:20 | Bubblier times

17. 40:20 - 44:02 | AI - political or technological bubble?

I hope you enjoy this session for our BREAKINGWATERS BOOK for April 2026.

If you missed reading along for April then don’t fret, 📖 From now until June 12th at BREAKINGWATERS Books, we will be reading Money Men, the true story of Wirecard, the major tech fraud story broken by Financial Times Investigative Journalist, Dan McCrum.

🕵️ 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘀, 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗹𝗲𝗯𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿𝘀, 𝗽𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗼𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗽𝗵𝗲𝗿𝘀, 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗮𝘀, 𝗵𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗲𝗿𝘀, 𝘀𝗽𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗳𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝘀, 𝗳𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘂𝗲𝘀, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗮 𝗳𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵 - Money Men by Dan McCrum has it all!

REGISTER: Money Men Q&A with Author Dan McCrum

To hear about future sessions, please subscribe at www.breakingwaters.com

If you have any queries or comments, please do not hesitate to reach out bryan@breakingwaters.com.

Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

One of the key considerations when analysing companies is how they respond to change. Change is a constant, sometimes fast and sometimes slow but constant. We develop beyond the “current” to the “next”. We discussed this in last week’s Sun Tzu-esday [May 5 + for paid subscribers here] in the example of Steve Jobs who realised that someone was eventually going to put a music player in a phone and the result would kill his, still young, revolutionary cash cow product, the Ipod. He didn’t hesitate and sacrificed his darling to remain relevant for the next phase of change.

WHY ARE YOU LAUGHING GRANDAD?

Today AI dominates the conversation in the investment industry. I was at a talk recently with one of the UK’s foremost hedge fund managers and the session was entitled, The Last Economy. The interviewer put it to the hedge fund manager that he was deeply worried about his children’s futures. What work could they get in a future with AI or, would there even be any work for them at all if AI and humanoid robots have taken over everything. It’s a fair question to ask and it’s a situation that needs to be monitored or it could run amok but history tells us that humans adapt to the new technology, not the other way around. One person at the session made the point that if he (in his 50’s) told his grandfather (a WW2 veteran) that he paid someone a living wage to stand over him at the gym (he would have to explain gyms) to offer him advice on how to lift things better, his grandfather would laugh at him.

OPPORTUNITIES SPRING FORTH

Since I entered university to now, whole new vibrant economies have developed around online advertising, influencing, smartphones, ecommerce, logistics, cloud etc. Technological advances have always had the same outcome, productivity has increased, life has gotten better for most and opportunities have expanded. In particular, the opportunity to do what you love and build a life around it has never been so possible as it is now. Musicians can use technology to bring their ideas to life and they can then distribute them to the world immediately on a variety of platforms. Movie makers only need a smartphone, some time and a vision to do the same. Even, global equity wonks can’t be stopped from setting up their soapbox substacks and blasting out their thoughts and feelings on the daily (ish) - they can even do it with edited videos, graphics, sound effects, jingles, etc. See, life is getting better. You’re welcome.

CELEBRATE OR ROTATE

For investors though, the question they should be asking is how are their investments shaping themselves to the nature of the ground before them? One of the major headlines out there is that CEO’s are letting people go at record rates, replacing them with AI. Investors have been generally reacting positively to this as a sign that costs will be cut and margins will expand. I would be very careful about celebrating a company for this, especially if it is all that they are doing.

Consider the typical office work environment. It is an environment of constraint, restriction and limitations. Budgets, cost management, hiring freezes, either/or decisions. Surpluses, like flakes of gold in muddy waters, need to be protected.

EXPLAIN IT TO ME LIKE I’M 5

I have yet to meet the person that doesn’t want more resource to put toward their job, to expand their responsibilities, to respond to issues quicker, to target new revenue channels, to enhance their current offering, to stave off the competition. That is what AI could be to organisations but removing the experienced, trained, dedicated person with AI will only create commercial stasis, business processes and offerings frozen in time. You need people to expand, enhance and improve. You need them to convey the culture of an organisation, it’s feelings on risk, it’s history. Large, mature, businesses will not hand over new products or initiatives to AI, it’s too risky - they can and have gone rogue in big ways (See recent PocketOS situation). Your people are your water and everyday they shape the business to the landscape being revealed. If you are invested in a company that is using AI to fire people to gain a short lived bump on the tape then you need to find other opportunities. That company has run out of ideas.

Don’t ask me, ask Trevor Noah.

My guess is, there will be a wave of rehiring in 9-12 months as these businesses realise they need experienced humans to supervise the AI and that they will inevitably start losing market share to the AI native competition.

For paid subscribers I include the below prompt to check your stocks for this trait. I use Gemini via the "=AI() function in Google Sheets and it returned this response for Klarna, a notable AI replacement story.

In the last six months, Klarna has maintained its strategy to reduce its workforce from 3,000 to 2,000 by 2030, a goal explicitly linked to AI automation and natural attrition. While the company previously cut approximately 700 roles due to AI, recent reports from early 2026 indicate a pivot to rehiring human agents via a flexible model following a decline in service quality.

During this same period, Klarna has aggressively pursued AI-led growth initiatives, including launching an AI-powered shopping assistant, developing internal productivity tools like Kiki, and using generative AI to reduce marketing costs by 25% while increasing campaign volume. The company also integrated payment options into Google's Gemini app and expanded its merchant network through partnerships with eBay and Walmart.

This dual approach of aggressive automation and product expansion is likely to lead to significant growth. By achieving a 152% increase in revenue per employee and maintaining profitability over four consecutive quarters, Klarna is successfully leveraging AI to improve margins and scale its market share, despite the operational challenges of replacing human labor.

Read more

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Sources: Fiscal.ai, Google Finance, 10 May 2026.

THE VIDEO BRIEF

THE AUDIO BRIEF

THE SUMMARY

Next week’s earnings and economic slate is a story of artificial intelligence, global inflation, and geopolitical undercurrents.

In corporate earnings, technology giants TSMC, Meta, Alibaba, and SoftBank take center stage. Key points being watched are insatiable demand for AI chips driving TSMC, robust digital advertising for Meta, and AI and cloud expansion data for Alibaba. However, investors will closely scrutinize the counterpoints of heavy AI infrastructure expenditures and potential margin pressures. Strong results are also expected from Rheinmetall due to elevated NATO defense spending albeit the stock has been declining, and Royal Caribbean will be in focus for their outlook on the recent hantavirus outbreak.

On the economic front, critical data includes China and US inflation rates, UK Q1 GDP, and US retail sales. Analysts forecast US year-over-year inflation at 3.60% and UK GDP growth at 1.40%.

Several market themes and sectors face indirect impacts:

Growth Stocks: If US inflation or retail sales exceed expectations, it could spark fears of interest rate hikes, broadly pressuring equity markets. Conversely, cooler data could heavily support growth and tech valuations.

Energy and Consumer Discretionary: Fluctuating global oil prices, exacerbated by Middle East tensions, remain a significant macroeconomic risk. This volatility indirectly impacts consumer spending power - monitored via Thursday’s US retail sales - and broader energy markets, including energy technology providers like Siemens Energy, which is currently balancing strong gas performance against wind execution risks.

Semiconductors: SoftBank’s cautious outlook due to AI risks, combined with TSMC’s manufacturing dominance, will dictate near-term momentum and investor sentiment for the broader semiconductor industry.

TOP 10 GLOBAL EARNINGS RELEASES this WEEK COMING

KEY ECONOMIC PRINTS this WEEK COMING

EARNINGS & ECONOMICS & THEIR READ ACROSS

~~~ Monday 11 May ~~~

Royal Caribbean Cruises - Analysts expect Royal Caribbean Cruises to report increased year-over-year profits in its upcoming report. This optimistic outlook is driven by strong guest demand, record booking seasons, higher pricing, and the continued rollout of new ships and exclusive destinations.

China Inflation Rate YoY APR - If the China Inflation Rate YoY APR exceeds expectations, it could pressure equity markets through potential monetary tightening. A lower outcome might suggest soft domestic demand. Investors should focus on consumer and energy sectors. Recent fuel price controls could impact this metric by cushioning global oil price volatility.

~~~ Tuesday 12 May ~~~

SoftBank Group - Analysts expect SoftBank Group to report declining earnings due to heavy leverage and concentrated risks in AI investments. While revenue growth is anticipated, regulatory concerns and market volatility regarding its semiconductor and tech portfolio contribute to a cautious outlook.

Siemens Energy - Analysts expect Siemens Energy to report strong results, driven by momentum in grid technologies and gas sectors. This optimistic outlook follows raised guidance and record order backlogs, though performance remains balanced against ongoing execution risks within its wind business.

Sea - Analysts expect Sea Limited to report year-over-year growth in revenue and earnings. This positive outlook is driven by strong e-commerce and fintech performance, though recent downward estimate revisions reflect concerns over rising marketing costs and prior earnings misses.

United States Inflation Rate YoY APR - An outcome exceeding the United States Inflation Rate YoY APR estimate could pressure equity markets through higher interest rates, whereas a lower result might support growth stocks. Investors should monitor energy and housing sectors. Recent geopolitical conflicts and associated energy price spikes have significantly heightened inflationary risks.

~~~ Wednesday 13 May ~~~

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing - Analysts expect Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing to report strong earnings growth in its upcoming release. This optimism is fueled by insatiable demand for advanced AI chips and the company’s leading role in manufacturing high-performance semiconductors for major global technology firms.

Meta Platforms - Analysts expect Meta Platforms to report strong growth in its upcoming earnings. This optimism is driven by robust digital advertising demand and increased user engagement, though rising capital expenditures for artificial intelligence infrastructure remain a key point of investor focus.

Tencent Holdings - Analysts expect Tencent Holdings to report growth in revenue and earnings. This positive outlook is driven by strong performance in domestic and international gaming, advertising improvements within the Weixin ecosystem, and the company’s disciplined approach to capital allocation.

Alibaba Group Holding - Analysts expect Alibaba Group Holding to exceed earnings expectations, driven by cloud and AI expansion. However, concerns remain regarding high investments in quick commerce and infrastructure, which could pressure profit margins despite strong revenue growth in core sectors.

~~~ Thursday 14 May ~~~

Rheinmetall - Analysts expect Rheinmetall to deliver improved results, driven by strong defense demand and a large order backlog. Growth is anticipated as previous delivery delays clear and production ramps up to meet elevated European and NATO military spending requirements.

United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1 - If the United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1 exceeds estimates, equity markets might gain momentum, potentially leading to higher central bank lending rates. Conversely, a lower outcome could weigh on valuations. Investors should monitor manufacturing and services. Recent Middle East tensions and energy disruptions could impact future growth.

United States Retail Sales MoM APR - If United States Retail Sales MoM exceeds estimates, equity markets could face pressure from potential interest rate hikes, while a lower outcome might support valuations. Investors should watch consumer discretionary and retail sectors. Recent Middle East tensions and fluctuating fuel prices remain significant risks to future spending.

~~~ Friday 15 May ~~~

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group - Analysts expect Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group to deliver strong earnings growth in its upcoming report. This positive outlook is driven by steady performance across customer segments, increased investment income, and higher profits from equity method investees like Morgan Stanley.

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Sources: Fiscal.ai, Google Finance, 9 May 2026.

THE VIDEO BRIEF

THE AUDIO BRIEF

THE RUNDOWN

European markets saw mixed results this week amid geopolitical tensions and contrasting economic data. The IBEX Spain led gains, rising 3.07% as consumer services and construction sectors rallied. The Euro Stoxx 50 increased 2.57%, supported by strong performances in industrials and financials despite energy sector weakness.

Germany’s DAX 40 rose 1.45% as markets anticipated growth under new leadership and potential U.S. auto tariff relief, though gains were tempered by late-week Middle East hostilities and a 0.2% YoY GDP contraction.

Conversely, the CAC 40 saw more modest growth of 1.71%, facing pressure from its heavy exposure to luxury and software sectors, which struggled as U.S.-Iran tensions flared toward the weekend.

Overall, while hopes for interest rate cuts provided a tailwind, escalating military hostilities near the Strait of Hormuz triggered a late-week retreat across major indices.

MOVERS AND SHAKERS

RISERS

• ASML Holding is a semiconductor equipment manufacturer that rose 11.12% after raising its annual sales guidance due to strong demand for AI chip-making tools.

• UniCredit is a pan-European commercial bank that climbed 10.05% following record quarterly profits and an upgraded net profit ambition for the 2026 fiscal year.

• Infineon Technologies is a global semiconductor manufacturer that gained 8.54% after lifting its full-year revenue and margin forecasts amid a strengthening boom in AI.

FALLERS

• Rheinmetall is a defense contractor that fell 12.23% after reporting a softer outlook for profit margin and free cash flow that missed analyst expectations.

• Wolters Kluwer is a professional information services provider that dropped 10.19% due to investor concerns regarding competition from artificial intelligence and potential customer churn.

• Deutsche Börse is a stock exchange operator that fell 7.22% following an antitrust investigation by the European Commission and a downgrade citing cyclical headwinds.

SECTORS

European sectors saw varied results this week. Basic Resources rose 4.72% and Technology gained 7.00% on strong corporate earnings and AI demand. Consumer Products climbed 4.33% as luxury markets rallied. Conversely, Energy fell 4.27% and Utilities dropped 1.80% as volatile oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz weighed on sentiment. Health Care also slipped 0.94%, trailing as investors rotated into cyclical sectors like Financials, which rose 2.43% amid shifting interest rate expectations. Despite late-week missile fire between the US and Iran, the STOXX 50 ended the week up 1.5%.

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Sources: Fiscal.ai, Google Finance, 9 May 2026.

THE VIDEO BRIEF

THE AUDIO BRIEF

THE RUNDOWN

Last week, the Nasdaq 100 led the markets with a 5.7% gain, driven by its heavy concentration in the outperforming technology sector.

The S&P 500 followed with a 2.8% increase, as large-cap tech leaders exerted significant influence on the index’s market-cap-weighted value. The Russell 2000 rose 2.3%, reflecting positive sentiment in the domestic U.S. economy, where small-cap companies derive most of their revenue.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.4%, showing steady performance from its 30 blue-chip members despite lagging behind high-growth tech indices. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.3%, supported by its broad exposure to the Canadian market.

Collectively, these results indicate a week characterized by high demand for innovation and growth stocks, while domestic and defensive sectors provided more moderate, stable returns.

MOVERS AND SHAKERS

RISERS

• • Akamai Technologies provides cloud and security services and rose 39.64% after reporting a $1.8B AI infrastructure deal with Anthropic and strong Q1 earnings results.

• Datadog is a cloud monitoring platform that climbed 36.45% following a record $1.01B revenue quarter and broad-based acceleration across AI and non-AI customer segments.

• Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company that gained 33.28% after reporting blowout Q1 earnings and issuing an upbeat revenue forecast driven by AI demand.

FALLERS

• CDW Corporation provides IT solutions and fell 22.55% after reporting Q1 margin compression and missing operating income expectations despite beating revenue estimates.

• Arista Networks is a networking equipment company that dropped 17.87% after warning that component supply constraints would impact future revenue growth and gross margins.

• APA Corporation is an energy company that fell 15.37% as investor concerns over future guidance overshadowed strong Q1 earnings and revenue beats.

SECTORS

Technology led weekly gains at 8.31%, fueled by robust earnings and continued AI investment momentum. Consumer Discretionary rose 2.11% as e-commerce trends supported growth, while Industrials gained 1.30% due to historical early-cycle outperformance. Conversely, Energy fell 6.21% as it reversed previous gains despite geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Utilities and Financials dropped 3.56% and 0.66% respectively, with the latter facing pressure from quantitative tightening. Real Estate climbed 0.75% as investors sought stability, while Consumer Staples edged up 0.77%, benefiting from its defensive nature during market volatility.

Q&A with the Author - open to all - Friday 12th June 2pm - 2:45pm (UK time)

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Money Men by Dan McCrum

Available to purchase here or listen on Spotify Premium, Audible or Apple Books

When journalist Dan McCrum followed a tip to investigate the hot new tech company challenging Silicon Valley, everything about Wirecard looked a little too good to be true: offices were sprouting up around the world, it was reporting runaway growth and the CEO even wore a black turtleneck in tribute to Steve Jobs. In the space of a few short years, the company had come from nowhere to overtake industry giants like Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank on the stock market.

As McCrum dug deeper, he encountered a story stranger and more dangerous than he ever imagined: a world of short sellers and whistleblowers, pornographers and private militias, hackers and spies. Before long he realised that he wasn’t the only one in pursuit. Shadowy figures were following him through the streets of London, high-flying lawyers were sending ominous letters to his boss, and he was named as the prime suspect in a criminal inquiry. The race was on to prove his suspicions and clear his name.

Money Men is the astonishing inside story of Wirecard’s multi-billion-dollar fraud, Europe’s biggest new tech darling revealed as a house of cards. Uncovering fake bank accounts, fake offices and possibly even a fake death, McCrum offers a searing exposé that will finally lay bare the truth.

REGISTER HERE

I look forward to reading the book and chatting with Dan together!

Invite details on registration.

Any queries - bryan@breakingwaters.com

© BREAKINGWATERS Media Ltd.

Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

As in war, sport, fashion, business and many other facets of life, there are those that can see the game in front of them better than their opponents or at least, their ability to make a call on where it’s going, ahead of time sets them apart in their outcomes.

EXAMPLE OF SUN TZU

There are many examples of this in business and many counterexamples. Apple is such an example. Many today might not know that Apple began as a personal computer company. They are now known for smartphones but this was not always the case. What seems like a no brainer in hindsight was a tenuous time for the company and a bold move my its captain, Steve Jobs.

In 2007, even though Mac’s and Ipods made up the majority of revenues for Apple, he saw the direction of travel for PC’s and Ipods and then saw the direction of travel for mobile phones and he made the call to modify the tactics of the business.

This was no small decision. It was a signal to all his teams that their roles and everything they had done to that point would not be the focus going forward. If he was wrong, the results would be disastrous for everyone involved - which is why Sun Tzu says, “and thereby succeed in winning”. He was effectively ending the Ipod which had been an incredibly successful and revolutionary product for the company that was only a few years in the world.

Steve Jobs was right of course, mobile phones was the strategy to pursue. In releasing the Iphone he also raised the bar for others, he introduced a smartphone that was intuitive and exciting with revolutionary new technology, touchscreen.

COUNTEREXAMPLES

Apples entry into the space and their innovation drove some counter examples to Sun Tzu’s advice that didn’t “modify their tactics” or did so too slowly. Nokia was the first counterexample, it failed to modify in relation to its opponent i.e. move to the smartphone.

They instead held the belief [full addendum detail for paid subscribers] that this new player and new technology was not a threat to their 50% market share. This belief was quickly proven false, by which time it was too late for them to reposition their resources and people to offer a defence. Another counterexample, cut from the same product launch was Blackberry. They owned the corporate mobile markets and they looked at the iPhone launch and saw a fragile toy with terrible battery life, a clumsy digital keyboard, and a lack of military-grade security. They assumed no serious businessperson would ever trade the efficiency of a BlackBerry keyboard for a flat piece of glass. Again, they were quickly proven wrong and by the time they went to reposition, it was too late [full detail for paid subscribers].

TAKEAWAY FOR INVESTORS

For investors, when looking at a company, it is important to consider Sun Tzu’s words and ask

1. is this company sitting at an inflection point for its products or industry?

and,

2. if it is, does it have a leader who can modify their tactics accordingly to protect, or even better, expand your investment.

Today there are several industries and companies facing dilemmas of innovation and I break down some of the names, industries and behaviours to watch out for in the [addendum for paid subscribers].

Read more

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Sources: Fiscal.ai, Google Finance, 3 May 2026.

THE VIDEO BRIEF

THE AUDIO BRIEF

THE SUMMARY

Technology companies including Palantir, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Meta are expected to post strong results driven by robust AI demand, data center growth, and digital advertising monetization. In the consumer sector, Royal Caribbean and Walt Disney are relying on strong demand in travel and theme parks. However, companies like McDonald’s and MercadoLibre may highlight underlying headwinds, facing pressures from a cautious global consumer and rising labor costs.

The economic calendar is heavy on US labor and inflation indicators - including Non-Farm Payrolls, JOLTs Job Openings, and the ISM Services PMI - alongside key global reports like the RBA Interest Rate decision and trade balances for Germany and Australia. Across the board, stronger-than-expected economic prints could prompt hawkish central bank policies. Keeping interest rates higher would likely pressure equity valuations, particularly in the technology sector, while lower results could support equities.

Geopolitics & Energy: Middle East tensions and surging fuel costs represent a major cross-sector risk. These factors threaten to heighten inflation and indirectly impact industries ranging from cruise itineraries and US service sectors to Australian mining and German automotive and chemical exports.

Labor & Tariffs: Rising labor costs, new tariffs, and general labor uncertainty pose significant risks to profit margins in healthcare, construction, retail, and fast food.

AI Integration: Beyond just boosting tech stock valuations, the broader integration of AI is flagged as an emerging catalyst that is upending labor markets.

TOP 10 GLOBAL EARNINGS RELEASES this WEEK COMING

KEY ECONOMIC PRINTS this WEEK COMING

EARNINGS & ECONOMICS & THEIR READ ACROSS

~~~ Monday 04 May ~~~

Berkshire Hathaway - Analysts expect Berkshire Hathaway to deliver strong earnings results, driven primarily by robust insurance underwriting and increased investment income. This outlook is supported by steady performance across its industrial subsidiaries, though market volatility may impact overall valuations.

Palantir Technologies - Analysts expect Palantir Technologies to deliver strong results, driven by robust demand for its artificial intelligence platforms. Growth in US commercial revenue and expansion of government contracts are key factors supporting positive sentiment regarding the company’s upcoming earnings performance.

~~~ Tuesday 05 May ~~~

Advanced Micro Devices - Analysts expect Advanced Micro Devices to deliver strong results, driven by robust demand for artificial intelligence chips and data center growth. Optimism stems from the company’s competitive positioning and expanding market share in the high-performance computing sector.

Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision - If the Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision exceeds expectations, equity markets could face pressure from higher borrowing costs, while a lower outcome might support valuations. Investors should focus on the banking and construction sectors. Recent Middle East tensions and surging fuel prices have significantly heightened inflationary risks.

United States ISM Services PMI (APR) - If the United States ISM Services PMI (APR) exceeds estimates, it could bolster the dollar and suggest higher interest rates, whereas a lower result might support equities. Investors should watch the financial and retail sectors. Recent Middle East tensions and rising fuel costs could impact future service sector activity.

United States JOLTs Job Openings (MAR) - If the United States JOLTs Job Openings (MAR) exceeded estimates, it could prompt hawkish central bank shifts, pressuring growth sectors like technology. Conversely, a lower result might support equities. Investors should monitor labor-intensive sectors and cyclical themes, as Middle East tensions and AI integration could further impact future demand.

~~~ Wednesday 06 May ~~~

Meta Platforms - Analysts expect Meta Platforms to report strong growth driven by robust digital advertising demand and increased monetization of its social platforms. Continued investment in artificial intelligence and efficient cost management are also seen as key factors supporting a positive outlook.

The Walt Disney - Analysts expect The Walt Disney Company to deliver growth in its upcoming report. Positive sentiment stems from strength in its streaming division, improved theme park attendance, and cost-cutting measures, though macroeconomic concerns and linear television declines remain risks.

Canada Ivey PMI s.a (APR) - An outcome exceeding expectations for the Canada Ivey PMI s.a (APR) would likely signal economic resilience, potentially supporting domestic equities while pressuring central bank lending rates upward. A lower result could bolster hopes for rate cuts. Investors should focus on Canadian manufacturing and consumer sectors, especially given recent Middle East tensions.

~~~ Thursday 07 May ~~~

McDonald’s - Analysts expect McDonald’s to see modest growth in its upcoming earnings report. This outlook is driven by resilient consumer demand for affordable dining and menu innovations, despite potential headwinds from rising labor costs and a cautious global consumer environment.

Howmet Aerospace - Analysts expect Howmet Aerospace to deliver strong growth in its upcoming earnings report. This positive outlook is driven by robust demand for engine and airframe components, alongside continued strength in the commercial aerospace and defense sectors.

MercadoLibre - Analysts expect MercadoLibre to report a year-over-year earnings decline despite higher revenues. This bearish outlook stems from narrowed margins caused by aggressive investments in logistics, free shipping, and fintech expansion, alongside intensifying competition and mounting credit risk.

Australia Balance of Trade (MAR) - If the Australia Balance of Trade (MAR) exceeded estimates, it would likely strengthen the AUD and suggest a hawkish RBA. Investors should watch mining and energy sectors given Middle East tensions. Conversely, a lower result could support equities by tempering rate hike expectations amid rising fuel and transport costs.

~~~ Friday 08 May ~~~

Royal Caribbean Cruises - Analysts expect Royal Caribbean Cruises to report strong year-over-year earnings growth. This positive outlook is driven by robust travel demand, record guest satisfaction, and increased onboard spending, despite potential headwinds from higher fuel costs and geopolitical tensions impacting certain itineraries.

Germany Balance of Trade (MAR) - If Germany Balance of Trade (MAR) exceeds estimates, it could bolster the Euro and export-heavy DAX industrials. Conversely, a lower result might signal weak global demand. Investors should watch the automotive and chemical sectors, especially given recent Middle East tensions and rising energy costs impacting manufacturing output.

United States Non Farm Payrolls (APR) - If United States Non Farm Payrolls (APR) exceed estimates, equity markets could face pressure as the Fed might keep rates higher. Below-estimate results could support valuations. Investors should watch health care, construction, and transportation. Recent Middle East tensions and new tariffs have heightened inflationary risks and labor uncertainty.

United States Unemployment Rate (APR) - If the United States Unemployment Rate (APR) exceeds estimates, equity markets could weaken as higher rates remain likely, while a lower result might boost valuations. Investors should monitor the healthcare and construction sectors. Recent Middle East tensions and surging energy costs pose significant risks to future labor stability.