After a successful career in investing in the UK, Alyx along with his business partner Ed set out on their own and set up their dedicated UK Long/Short Fund, Kernow AM (Kernow is Cornish for Cornwall) in 2019. Since then they have delivered for their clients and gained a deep understanding of the UK markets.

This is the second part of a two part conversation (Part 1 can be here, YouTube or Spotify).

The running order is below, enjoy!

0:00 - 2:00 | Why is Tech not Bigger in UK Markets?
2:00 - 4:20 | How much research goes into your shorts and how long do you hold for?
4:20 - 9:40 | Why is the Shareholder Register important to you?
9:40 - 12:20 | Brookfield and Secure Trust Bank
12:20 - 15:00 | UK Housebuilders
15:00 - 17:10 | Metro Bank
17:10 - 21:38 | The Perception of Shorting
21:38 - end | Monzo Bank & Outro

I hope you enjoy this second session in our two part conversation.

You might also be interested in: a BREAKINGWATERS Books discussion on the 30th of April of our April Book, Boom and Bust where we will be discussing financial bubbles with FT Business Book of the Year winners Professors John Turner and William Quinn.

Register here: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1JU11WzwUZ_k7hE5wU49aaWptdtjVuvGQjUxwzZeQ6SI/edit

To hear about future sessions, please subscribe at www.breakingwaters.com

If you have any queries or comments, please do not hesitate to reach out bryan@breakingwaters.com.

Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Investing is a funny game. You need to be open minded but sceptical, convinced in your view but ever doubtful, patient but paranoid, not watch the tape but be ever watchful to changes in the story. This paradoxical existence can often lead us to taking on battles we needn’t be in.

Within the investing world, at any one time, there are a myriad of battles occurring. Portfolio managers big and small engage in back and forths in the public forum about the merits of a range of investment theses, from the more general, such as the direction of major markets to the more niche, like how Sirius XM will do (a stock with a high short interest to its active long interest). They do so to generate attention, to test their argument (this is a more theoretical reason in practice), to signal their prophetic prowess and, in some cases, they hope to move the price in the direction of their argument. But, investing is also a game where if you wait long enough, the numbers will eventually appear on the board and those locked in battle will know who is right, and who is dead (to quote the famous The Princess Bride scene above). Stocks where there are relatively high short positions compared to the active long positions are called battleground stocks.

Earlier in my career, I felt -strongly - that I had the measure of stocks that were clearly in line for a fall and while I never explicitly went short, I was very vocal and very smug in expressing my views. Very often they did not play out as I had said and I was left red faced. The relatively minor cost to my ego though was an invaluable investment experience. I learned that spotting shorts is not as straightforward as spotting longs and where the twain meet, you don’t really need to be.

Later in my career I ran headlong into such a situation. In H2 2019, Wirecard was a darling of European tech, loved by the sell side and held up as an example of Europe’s ability to develop tech companies. It was on our list and was heavily recommended. Then Dan McCrum of the FT wrote a pointed piece outlining his concerns about the company, serious concerns. This created a hive of battle activity, backs and forths, mostly in defence of the company. Committees were arranged, auditors hired, meetings held, notes upon notes were written, many conference calls (as it was at the time) were made. The price fell at first but regained the lost ground and moved on. The sell side didn’t move their view much but bolstered their position that the company had addressed the issue, but when you looked through the hive of activity, they hadn’t really addressed the concerns Dan raised. I followed the backs and forths at first but quickly realised I was not going to get an edge, or even if i did it wouldn’t be worth that much. So, for my part, under some challenge and pressure, I pushed through the removal of the name from the list. Ultimately, we didn’t need the battle. There are thousands of opportunities out there, we moved on and dedicated resource to that. A few months later, it came out that Dan and the FT were correct. The stock collapsed. It wasn’t edge and insight that protected the portfolio from Wirecard, it was simply avoiding a battle that wasn’t necessary to the goal.

Have you faced similar battles? Are you fighting a battle today that maybe isn’t worth it and you can just step away?

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Sources: Fiscal.ai, Google Finance, 25 Apr 2026.

THE VIDEO BRIEF

THE AUDIO BRIEF

THE SUMMARY

Big Tech dominates the schedule, with Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple all reporting. Analysts are highly focused on the continued integration and monetization of generative artificial intelligence, alongside robust demand in cloud computing (AWS, Azure) and digital advertising. Outside of tech, consumer spending and global travel resilience will be tested by Visa and Booking Holdings. The pharmaceutical sector will see crucial updates from Eli Lilly regarding its high-demand obesity and diabetes treatments, while Airbus and Coca-Cola will offer insights into commercial supply chains and global pricing power.

On the economic front, Central bank policy will take center stage, featuring key interest rate decisions from the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan (BoJ), Bank of Canada (BoC), Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB). Additional critical indicators include US and Euro Area Q1 GDP growth rates, along with pivotal inflation prints from Germany and the broader Euro Area.

Indirect Market Impacts and Themes:

• Interest-Sensitive Sectors: The heavy slate of global central bank decisions will shape rate-cut expectations. Higher-for-longer rates could heavily pressure growth stocks and tech valuations while supporting financials. Conversely, lower rates or dovish outlooks could boost utilities and real estate.

• AI Infrastructure CapEx: High capital expenditures from Meta, Alphabet, and Apple on AI technologies will have major ripple effects on semiconductor and hardware supply chains.

• Geopolitics & Energy: Escalating Middle East conflicts and rising energy costs remain key wildcards that could impact global inflation, pressuring manufacturing, industrials, and export-driven equities.

TOP 10 GLOBAL EARNINGS RELEASES this WEEK COMING

KEY ECONOMIC PRINTS this WEEK COMING

EARNINGS & ECONOMICS & THEIR READ ACROSS

~~~ Monday 27 Apr ~~~

Alphabet - Analysts expect Alphabet to deliver strong earnings results, driven primarily by continued momentum in Search and Cloud services. This positive outlook is supported by robust digital advertising demand and the integration of advanced artificial intelligence capabilities across its platform.

~~~ Tuesday 28 Apr ~~~

Visa - Analysts expect Visa to demonstrate continued growth in its upcoming earnings report. This optimism stems from robust consumer spending and high cross-border transaction volumes, despite concerns regarding global economic stability and shifting regulatory environments impacting the payments industry.

The Coca-Cola - Analysts expect The Coca-Cola Company to report solid growth in its upcoming earnings. This optimism stems from strong global demand, effective pricing strategies, and momentum in emerging markets, which help counteract inflationary pressures and unfavorable currency exchange rates.

Novartis - Analysts expect Novartis to report solid results, though sentiment is mixed. Investors will focus on pipeline execution and whether the company can maintain its history of beating estimates while navigating patent cliff risks and concerns over key cardiovascular drug sales.

Airbus - Analysts anticipate Airbus will report strong performance in its upcoming earnings. Optimism stems from robust commercial aircraft demand and ramped-up production, though investors remain cautious regarding ongoing supply chain disruptions and engine-related technical challenges affecting the industry.

Booking Holdings - Analysts expect Booking Holdings to report year-over-year growth in both earnings and revenue. This positive outlook is driven by resilient global travel demand and the company’s successful integration of AI-powered features to enhance its travel platform services.

Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision - If the Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision exceeds expectations, it would likely strengthen the Yen and pressure export-oriented stocks. A lower outcome could support equity valuations. Investors should monitor financial and energy sectors, as Middle East tensions and rising fuel costs currently heighten economic uncertainty.

~~~ Wednesday ~~~

Microsoft - Analysts expect Microsoft to report strong earnings growth, fueled by robust demand for Azure cloud services and the expansion of AI-integrated features. This optimism stems from the company’s leading position in enterprise software and its successful monetization of generative AI.

Amazon.com - Analysts expect Amazon.com to deliver strong results in its upcoming report. Optimism is driven by significant growth in AWS cloud services, rising advertising revenue, and improved profitability in its retail sector following successful operational efficiency improvements and cost management strategies.

Meta Platforms - Analysts expect Meta Platforms to report strong earnings driven by robust advertising demand and successful AI integration. This positive outlook is fueled by increased user engagement, although significant spending on infrastructure and future technologies continues to be a primary focus.

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China - Analysts expect Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to report modest earnings growth. This outlook is driven by narrowing net interest margins and exposure to the property sector, partially offset by steady performance in services and stable asset quality.

LVMH Moët Hennessy - Analysts expect Alphabet to report strong results, driven by massive growth in Cloud services and resilient Search performance. This optimism stems from robust demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure and the successful integration of Gemini across its enterprise and consumer platforms.

Germany Inflation Rate YoY Prel APR - If Germany Inflation Rate YoY Prel APR exceeds estimates, it could pressure the ECB to maintain higher rates, potentially weighing on European growth stocks. A lower reading might support easing cycles, benefiting financials. Recent Middle East conflict and soaring energy prices remain critical factors impacting these inflationary trends.

United States Housing Starts MAR - If United States Housing Starts MAR exceeds estimates, it could signal economic resilience, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts and pressuring growth sectors. A miss might bolster easing expectations. Investors should watch the Northeast and Midwest for value. Persistent affordability issues and Middle East-related energy shocks remain key influences.

Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision - If the Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision were to exceed estimates, growth-sensitive sectors would likely face pressure. Conversely, a lower outcome should support utilities. Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and energy supply shocks remain critical factors that could impact this metric and broader Canadian equity market volatility.

United States Fed Interest Rate Decision - A higher United States Fed Interest Rate Decision would likely pressure growth stocks and tech, while a lower result could boost interest-sensitive sectors like utilities. Conflict in the Middle East and rising energy prices remain key factors. Investors should watch the financial and real estate sectors closely for shifts.

~~~ Thursday ~~~

Apple - Analysts expect Apple to deliver positive earnings results driven by robust growth in Services and stabilizing iPhone demand. This outlook is supported by optimism surrounding AI integration and the potential for a new hardware upgrade cycle among consumers.

Eli Lilly - Analysts expect Eli Lilly to deliver strong results driven by high demand for its obesity and diabetes treatments. This optimism stems from the successful expansion of manufacturing capacity and the continued market leadership of its core metabolic health portfolio.

China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI APRIL - If the China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI for April exceeds estimates, it could bolster global manufacturing and emerging market equities. A miss might pressure industrial sectors and prompt central bank easing. Investors should watch Chinese industrials and regional trade partners. Recent Middle East conflicts have increased raw material costs.

Euro Area GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash Q1 - An upside surprise for Euro Area GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash Q1 could prompt the ECB to maintain restrictive rates, potentially weighing on growth-sensitive sectors. Conversely, a weaker reading might bolster rate-cut expectations. Middle East tensions and US trade tariffs remain critical factors impacting regional growth and investment sentiment.

Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash APR - If the Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash APR exceeds estimates, it could delay ECB rate cuts, potentially weighing on growth sectors like technology. Conversely, a lower reading would likely support easing, benefiting rate-sensitive financials. Middle East conflict-driven energy price volatility remains a significant recent factor for future prints.

United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision - If the United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision were to exceed estimates, it could pressure UK equities, particularly growth sectors. A lower result would likely support financial and housing themes. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East remains a key factor that could impact future inflationary trends and rate decisions.

Euro Area ECB Interest Rate Decision - If the Euro Area ECB Interest Rate Decision exceeds estimates, it could pressure growth stocks by signaling tighter policy. A lower outcome might support financials and utilities through rate cut expectations. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fluctuating energy prices remain key factors impacting future rate trajectories.

United States GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q1 - If United States GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q1 exceeds estimates, it could support equity valuations and delay rate cuts. A miss might heighten recession fears. Investors should watch small-caps and cyclical sectors. Recent Middle East tensions and government shutdowns could weigh on these growth figures.

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Sources: Fiscal.ai, Google Finance, 25 Apr 2026.

THE VIDEO BRIEF

THE AUDIO BRIEF

THE RUNDOWN

European markets faced significant headwinds this week, primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The IBEX Spain led the decline, falling 3.12% as soaring oil prices and regional instability pressured its energy-sensitive and financial-heavy composition. France’s CAC 40 dropped 2.08%, weighed down by heavy losses in the healthcare and industrial sectors despite resilient luxury performance.

The DAX 40 lost 1.18%, marking five consecutive sessions of declines as aerospace and defense stocks like Rheinmetall slipped, although gains in technology leaders like SAP provided some cushion. Similarly, the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 1.66%, reflecting broader Eurozone caution and the impact of rising yields on blue-chip valuations. Investors remained in a holding pattern as high energy costs and uncertainty regarding Iran-US peace negotiations continue to overshadow corporate earnings.

MOVERS AND SHAKERS

RISERS

• Infineon Technologies provides semiconductor solutions and rose 12.81% this week, it’s second week as the highest riser in Europe due to general market optimism and strong demand for AI and automotive power technologies.

• Siemens Energy offers energy technology across the value chain and climbed 11.12% following a record order backlog and strong quarterly revenue growth.

• L’Oréal is a global beauty and cosmetics leader that gained 7.55% as positive financial performance and market leadership in the beauty sector boosted sentiment.”ond week in a row, up 13.91% following strong global demand for automotive and power electronics chips.

FALLERS

• Safran is an aerospace and defense group that fell 10.89% as supply chain bottlenecks and a slowing aviation sector weighed on its long-term outlook.

• Rheinmetall is a major defense contractor that dropped 10.61% following reports of potential peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, cooling sector-wide demand expectations.

• EssilorLuxottica is a global eyewear manufacturer that slipped 10.07% due to lingering investor doubts regarding its demanding growth targets and performance in smart glasses.

SECTORS

The Energy sector surged 4.04% as escalating Middle East tensions drove crude oil prices higher. Utilities and Technology also gained 1.18% and 1.12% respectively, supported by infrastructure demand and AI-driven growth. Conversely, Health Care fell 4.17% and Financials dropped 3.86%. Retail and industrials declined 3.45% and 2.96% as persistent inflation fears and higher fuel costs impacted Consumer Discretionary spending and manufacturing margins. Mixed economic reports on retail sales and manufacturing contributed to broader volatility across these sensitive sectors.

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Sources: Fiscal.ai, Google Finance, 25 Apr 2026.

THE VIDEO BRIEF

THE AUDIO BRIEF

THE RUNDOWN

U.S. markets reached record highs this week, driven by significant gains in the technology sector and renewed optimism for U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. The Nasdaq 100 outperformed other indices with a 2.7% increase, propelled by strong performances from semiconductor giants like Intel and AMD.

The S&P 500 rose 0.8% as it benefited from its heavy weight in information technology, which remains a primary driver of market growth. Conversely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%, as its price-weighted structure was more sensitive to fluctuations in established blue-chip components.

The Russell 2000 also saw a slight decline of 0.2%, reflecting more cautious sentiment toward small-cap stocks. In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite dropped 1.3% as ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran weighed on investor sentiment, despite its significant exposure to the energy sector which saw some price support.

MOVERS & SHAKERS

RISERS

• Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company that rose 26.50% following broader chip sector gains and increased confidence in CPU demand for AI inference.

• Intel is a semiconductor manufacturer that climbed 25.68% after reporting better than expected first quarter earnings and raising its revenue guidance due to AI demand.

• United Rentals is an equipment rental firm that gained 19.96% after posting record first quarter revenue and increasing its full year financial outlook.

FALLERS

• Charter Communications provides cable and broadband services and fell 26.38% after missing Q1 earnings expectations and reporting a decline in internet subscribers.

• Tractor Supply is a rural lifestyle retailer that dropped 18.05% following a Q1 earnings miss and weak same-store sales growth.

• Lululemon Athletica designs athletic apparel and fell 13.79% after naming a new CEO and facing concerns over slowing North American sales and margin pressure.

  SECTORS

U.S. sectors saw mixed performance this week. Technology led gains at 3.66% as high confidence in AI demand and stellar earnings from companies like Intel boosted the chip sector. Energy rose 3.27% as geopolitical tension in the Middle East drove oil prices higher. Conversely, Communication Services fell 2.70% due to concerns over high AI capital expenditures. Financials dropped 2.30% as investors rotated toward value and defensive areas. Consumer Staples gained 1.02% and Utilities rose 0.94% as investors sought stability amid market volatility and economic uncertainty.

After a successful career in investing in the UK, Alyx along with his business partner Ed set out on their own and set up their dedicated UK Long/Short Fund, Kernow AM (Kernow is Cornish for Cornwall) in 2019. Since then they have delivered for their clients and gained a deep understanding of the UK markets.

This is the first part of a two part conversation.

The running order is below, enjoy!

0:00 - 6:40 | Who are you and how did you get here?
6:40 - 9:36 | What has been your approach to Kernow?
9:36 - 11:15 | How has Performance Been?
11:15 - 16:25 | Is Sentiment on the UK Turning?
16:25 - 19:41 | Anecdotal vs Analytical Evidence
19:41 - 22:30 | How Many Multi-baggers are out there?
22:30 - 24:42 | What are your top ideas?
24:42 - 26:30 | Is the current Energy shock temporary or structural?
26:30 - 28:30 | How Much does the US affect your process?

I hope you enjoy this first session in our two part conversation.

You might also be interested in: a BREAKINGWATERS Books discussion on the 30th of April of our April Book, Boom and Bust where we will be discussing financial bubbles with FT Business Book of the Year winners Professors John Turner and William Quinn.

Register here: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1JU11WzwUZ_k7hE5wU49aaWptdtjVuvGQjUxwzZeQ6SI/edit

To hear about future sessions, please subscribe at www.breakingwaters.com

If you have any queries or comments, please do not hesitate to reach out bryan@breakingwaters.com.

-Sun Tzu

Image generated from Gemini

THE ART OF WAR

Written in China roughly 2,500 years ago and attributed to military strategist Sun Tzu, The Art of War is one of the most influential treatises on strategy, tactics, and conflict ever produced. It is composed of 13 chapters, each dedicated to a different aspect of warfare - from laying plans and manoeuvering armies to using spies and understanding terrain.

What makes the text so enduring is that it is not really about the mechanics of hacking with swords or shooting arrows. It is a profound study of human psychology, resource management, and strategic positioning. Sun Tzu’s core philosophy revolves around efficiency: winning with the least amount of destruction, avoiding prolonged conflicts, and securing victory through superior planning and positioning before the battle even begins.

A STAPLE OF 1980s FINANCE

The Art of War was a cliched desk adornment of bankers in the 80’s and 90’s and has remained a tongue in cheek element of the industry, I have a copy sitting proudly on my book shelf. In this new series, I will take a piece of advice from the book each Tuesday (Sun Tzu-esday) and apply it to prevailing markets, hopefully it is fun and thought provoking.

EVEN THE FINEST SWORD

This week’s inaugural Sun Tzu quote - Even the finest sword plunged into salt water will eventually rust. - reminds use that even the finest swords [companies, investments, people] can rust if they’ve spent too much time in salt water.

What is salt water to investing, business and people though?

Salt water refers to an unsuitable environment, conditions that over time will damage and decay that which is not suited to it. Crucially too, it is a relatively slow process that can only be truly seen when looked for by those who know what it looks like.

This could be any range of items in an investment thesis:

• A structurally declining industry - cable tv, landlines, coal mining, tobacco, physical retail are all examples of industries in structural decline and having an extremely fine company sitting in the middle of one of these needs to be understood deeply.

• Toxic corporate culture - these are more prevalent in industries moving really fast (e.g. AI, tech, social media) or in industries moving really slow, where, without opportunity or the chance of recognition, politics and behaviours fester. Something to watch out for if investing in booming AI companies.

• Loss of focus on the products/services in favour of marketing - Steve Jobs was hyperaware of this and in a world of shortened attention spans and overwhelming focus on social media marketing, it is more likely than ever:

• Arrogant leadership - one of the fallouts of the digital age of the internet was that everyone has to be on a mission, but visionary founder missions can be dangerous to investors - Mikhail Zverev mentions as much in our recent EiC with him - as they can burn through investor capital (more often than not they end up very wealthy though….) on a fruitless plan, e.g. WeWork.

• Chronic capital misallocation - when a company hits on a cash cow product and are suddenly dealing with more capital than they’re use to, they can often go down paths of empire building, M&A, acquisitions or similarly wasteful uses of capital.

• Poor strategy - incoming leaders tend to want to be seen to make change to justify their existence. If it ain’t broke though and they fix it, it can often derail the successful process and momentum that was in place.

• Product missteps - staying ahead of competition in what you do and/or getting too far from what you do well can be fatal, Blackberry did two missteps in a relatively tiny amount of time, first they didn’t move to touchscreen when Apple did and this lost them huge share but those that remained, did so for the keyboard. When they launched their next model it had a touchscreen (too late) and no keyboard (forgot or ignored their core offering) and ultimately saw them disappear having been near dominant in corporate mobiles.

• Debt - we all know about this one.

For investors there are a few too, it can be paying too high a price, having too many eggs in one basket, not doing your research, not managing exposures, being too slow - or - quick to react or debt (leverage) too.

Good corporate and investment management requires that you regularly ask yourself, what is the salt water?

What do you think?

AUDIO BRIEF

SUMMARY

Next week (April 20-24) brings a critical wave of corporate earnings and global economic reports.

Key Earnings: Optimism surrounds General Electric and Tesla, driven by robust aerospace demand and anticipated production growth, respectively. Intel is also expected to perform well due to rising AI hardware demand and its foundry model transition. Conversely, Boeing is anticipated to post significant losses stemming from ongoing 737 MAX safety investigations and delivery issues. Consumer health appears resilient, with American Express, Nestlé, and Procter & Gamble projecting strong or steady results despite rising input costs.

Key Economic Reports: Global inflation and manufacturing data will take center stage. Crucial releases include inflation rates for Canada, the UK, and Japan, alongside Manufacturing PMI flashes for Germany and the UK. The US will also report on retail sales, providing deeper insight into consumer discretionary spending.

Indirect Market Impacts and Themes:

• Interest-Rate Sensitive Sectors: Inflation reports across Canada, the UK, and Japan could sway central bank rate policies, creating ripple effects for growth. For example, rising Japanese inflation could prompt interest rate hikes, benefiting their financial sector while weighing on export-oriented themes.

• Geopolitics and Energy: The recent Middle East conflict and energy price spikes are recurring risk factors. These could dampen US consumer spending and disrupt European sectors like automotive, chemicals, aerospace, and transport.

• Tech & Renewables: Intel’s growth highlights the continued indirect impact of AI development. Additionally, GE Vernova’s strong outlook points to a booming electrification and renewable energy sector.

TOP 10 GLOBAL EARNINGS RELEASES this WEEK COMING

KEY ECONOMIC PRINTS this WEEK COMING

EARNINGS & ECONOMICS & THEIR READ ACROSS

~~~ Monday 20 Apr ~~~

Canada Inflation Rate YoY MAR - If Canada Inflation Rate YoY MAR exceeds estimates, it could prompt tighter Bank of Canada policy, potentially pressuring growth stocks. A lower reading might support rate cut expectations, benefiting financials and utilities. Recent fluctuations in global energy prices and housing costs remain key factors impacting these inflationary trends.

~~~ Tuesday 21 Apr ~~~

General Electric - Analysts expect General Electric to report strong performance in its upcoming earnings report. This optimism is fueled by robust demand in the aerospace sector and improved operational efficiency, despite broader economic uncertainties and persistent global supply chain challenges.

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated - Analysts expect Merdeka Copper Gold to report improved performance in its upcoming report. This optimism is driven by anticipated growth in production and favorable commodity prices, despite some recent downward revisions in consensus estimates and past performance misses.

United Kingdom Unemployment Rate FEB - If the United Kingdom Unemployment Rate FEB exceeds estimates, it could pressure the Bank of England to cut rates, benefiting interest-sensitive sectors like homebuilders. A lower rate might bolster the pound but signal persistent inflation. Investors should monitor youth employment and recent tax changes impacting business hiring costs.

United States Retail Sales MoM MAR - If United States Retail Sales MoM MAR exceeds estimates, it would likely boost the retail and consumer discretionary sectors. A lower result could heighten recession fears. Investors should watch the technology and consumer sectors. Recent Mideast conflict and energy price spikes could dampen future consumer spending behavior.

~~~ Wednesday 22 Apr ~~~

Tesla - Analysts expect Tesla to report improved performance in its upcoming report. This optimism is driven by anticipated growth in production and favorable commodity prices, despite some recent downward revisions in consensus estimates and past performance misses.

GE Vernova - Analysts expect GE Vernova to report strong growth in its upcoming earnings. This positive outlook is driven by increased demand for electrification and renewable energy solutions, coupled with improved operational efficiency and a robust backlog of global power projects.

The Boeing Co. - Analysts expect Boeing to report a significant loss in its upcoming earnings report. This negative outlook is driven by ongoing production delays, safety investigations, and delivery issues following the mid-air door plug blowout on a 737 MAX jet.

United Kingdom Inflation Rate YoY MAR - If United Kingdom Inflation Rate YoY MAR exceeds estimates, it could pressure the Bank of England to raise interest rates, potentially Weighing on equities. Conversely, a miss might support rate cuts. Investors should watch the energy and transport sectors, as Middle East conflict and rising oil prices impact future trends.

~~~ Thursday 23 Apr ~~~

Intel - Analysts expect Intel to report improved performance driven by its ongoing transition to a foundry model and increased demand for AI-related hardware. Growth is anticipated from new product launches and cost-saving measures despite competitive pressures and segment volatility.

Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash APR - If the Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash exceeds estimates, it could strengthen the Euro and bolster industrial stocks. A miss would suggest slowing growth, potentially pressuring the DAX. Investors should watch the automotive and chemical sectors. Recent Middle East tensions and supply chain disruptions may impact future readings.

United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash APR - If United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash APR exceeds estimates, it could support the pound and manufacturing stocks. Falling short might prompt interest rate cuts. Investors should monitor the aerospace, defense, and energy sectors. Recent Middle East conflict and supply chain disruptions could pressure future readings.

Japan Inflation Rate YoY MAR - If Japan Inflation Rate YoY MAR exceeds estimates, it could prompt the central bank to raise interest rates, potentially benefiting the financial sector while weighing on export-oriented themes. A miss might sustain monetary easing. Recent energy price volatility and the weaker yen could impact future readings.

Nestlé - Analysts anticipate Nestlé will demonstrate resilient organic sales growth in its upcoming earnings report. This optimism stems from robust pricing power and sustained demand for premium brands, which helps the company offset rising costs and currency fluctuations.

American Express - Analysts expect American Express to report strong performance driven by resilient spending from affluent consumers and a recovery in travel. This optimism is balanced by concerns regarding rising credit delinquency rates and the impact of persistent inflation.

~~~ Friday 24 Apr ~~~

The Procter & Gamble - Analysts expect The Procter & Gamble Company to report moderate growth in its upcoming earnings. This performance is attributed to resilient consumer demand and effective pricing strategies, despite ongoing concerns regarding rising input costs and unfavorable foreign exchange rates.

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Sources: Fiscal.ai, Google Finance, 18 Apr 2026.

THE AUDIO BRIEF

THE RUNDOWN

The European equity markets closed the week with strong gains, primarily driven by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which eased energy supply concerns and stagflation fears.

The DAX 40 led the region with a 4.04% weekly rise, bolstered by Germany’s export-oriented economy and significant fiscal spending in infrastructure and defense.

The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed 2.59% as banking and industrial giants rallied on improved credit outlooks and lower power prices.

Spain's IBEX rose 2.56%, while the CAC 40 increased 2.30%. The French index benefited from its high concentration of luxury and aerospace leaders like LVMH and Airbus, which gained in a lower-risk environment despite a decline in TotalEnergies due to plunging oil prices.

Overall, sentiment was further supported by potential progress in U.S.–Iran negotiations and expectations of ECB monetary policy easing.

MOVERS AND SHAKERS

RISERS

• Infineon Technologies is a German semiconductor manufacturer that rose 13.91% following strong global demand for automotive and power electronics chips.

• Wolters Kluwer provides professional information software and rose 12.28% due to positive market sentiment regarding its AI-integrated legal and healthcare solutions.

• Adyen is a Dutch payment processing company that climbed 10.37% after reporting significant growth in processed transaction volumes across its unified commerce platform.

FALLERS

• Eni is an Italian oil and gas company that fell 9.37% as broader energy sector volatility and market uncertainty pressured major industry players.

• TotalEnergies is a French multi-energy company that declined 8.27% due to significant production losses in the Middle East and halted investments in conflict-affected regions.

• BASF is a leading global chemical producer that dropped 3.44% following reports of major operational losses at its Ludwigshafen site and continued restructuring efforts.

SECTORS

European sectors rallied for the most part this week, led by Industrials (4.13%) as the Strait of Hormuz reopened following a 10-day ceasefire, easing supply chain fears. Technology (3.71%) and Banks (3.69%) gained on the improved outlook, solid earnings and cooling inflation expectations as swap rates fell. Conversely, the Energy sector tumbled -5.73% as Brent crude dropped 10% to $88.8 on the news of restored oil flows. Utilities also dipped -2.74% amid shifting funding costs.

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Sources: Fiscal.ai, Google Finance, 18 Apr 2026.

THE AUDIO BRIEF

THE RUNDOWN

Major U.S. indices recorded gains this week as investors showed resilience ahead of key Federal Reserve announcements and driven by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which eased energy supply concerns and stagflation fears.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 led the advance with a 5.1% increase, bolstered by its 62.48% concentration in the technology sector and strong performance from mega-cap innovators.

The S&P 500 rose 3.5%, supported by stable economic indicators and robust retail sales data. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2.5%, benefiting from its composition of well-established companies across diverse industries like financials and industrials.

Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 gained 4.0% as sentiment improved for small-cap domestic equities. In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite saw a more modest rise of 1.4%; while it benefits from significant exposure to the energy and materials sectors, its growth trailed the aggressive tech-led rally seen in U.S. markets.

Overall, positive corporate earnings and stabilized bond yields continue to underpin investor confidence across these global benchmarks.

MOVERS & SHAKERS

RISERS

• Robinhood Markets is a financial services platform that rose 26.62% following news that the SEC will end day-trading limits for retail investors.

• Coinbase is a cryptocurrency brokerage that climbed 18.22% as improved market conditions and digital asset volatility drove higher transaction revenue and trading volumes.

• ON Semiconductor provides intelligent power and sensing solutions and gained 16.88% amid strong demand for AI data center and electric vehicle power technologies.

FALLERS

• LyondellBasell is a chemical company that fell 12.24% following a sharp dividend reset and cooling geopolitical premiums after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

• Dow Inc. is a materials science firm that dropped 11.24% as plunging oil prices and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz unwound conflict-driven gains.

• APA Corporation explores and produces oil and gas, falling 9.50% after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire removed the energy market’s short-term conflict premium.

  SECTORS

Most sectors rallied as a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eased geopolitical tensions. Technology surged 6.00% on AI enthusiasm and strong earnings upgrades. Consumer Discretionary rose 5.70% and Industrials gained 0.45% as lower fuel costs and resilient consumer spending supported cyclicals. Conversely, Energy fell 3.66% as oil prices dropped roughly 9% with the removal of the risk premium. Materials and Utilities saw modest declines of 0.59% and 0.50% respectively, while Financials gained 1.49% following upbeat reports from major U.S. banks. Real Estate added 3.39% as bond yields stabilized.

AUDIO BRIEF

SUMMARY

Major financial institutions JPMorgan Chase and BlackRock are expected to report strong performance on Tuesday, driven by robust investment banking, interest income, and increased investor inflows. In the technology and energy spaces, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is anticipated to report strong results on Thursday due to surging AI chip demand, while Contemporary Amperex Technology is expected to see growth propelled by high global electric vehicle and energy storage battery demand.

Economic Data & Their Indirect Impacts: In the US, Monday’s Existing Home Sales could sway homebuilder and retail stocks, while Tuesday’s PPI report will be a crucial indicator for interest rate expectations. A hotter-than-expected PPI could delay rate cuts, pressuring equities and directly impacting interest-sensitive, energy, and transportation sectors.

Global Markets: China will release major economic indicators, including Q1 GDP, Trade Balance, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales. Strong Chinese data could positively ripple into emerging markets, advanced manufacturing, and renewable energy sectors. However, structural risks like US tariffs, property sector stagnation, and slowing domestic EV demand linger. Furthermore, the UK’s GDP report on Thursday will steer the GBP and consumer-facing sectors by shaping Bank of England rate cut expectations.

Broad Themes to Watch: Across both earnings and economic fronts, rising commodity prices, surging oil, and Middle East geopolitical tensions are recurring indirect themes. These factors threaten to heighten global stagflation risks, inflate industrial output costs, and pressure future mortgage rates.

TOP 10 GLOBAL EARNINGS RELEASES this WEEK COMING

KEY ECONOMIC PRINTS this WEEK COMING

EARNINGS & ECONOMICS & THEIR READ ACROSS

~~~ Monday 13 Apr ~~~

The Goldman Sachs Group - Analysts expect Goldman Sachs to report significant year-over-year growth in its upcoming earnings. This optimism is driven by record deal activity and the firm’s leading market share in investment banking fees and mergers and acquisitions advisory services.

United States Existing Home Sales MAR - If United States Existing Home Sales MAR exceeds estimates, it could boost homebuilder and retail sectors. A miss might heighten recession fears. Investors should focus on the South and West regions. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising energy prices could impact future mortgage rates and demand.

~~~ Tuesday 14 Apr ~~~

JPMorgan Chase - Analysts expect JPMorgan Chase & Co. to report strong financial performance. This positive outlook is driven by anticipated growth in interest income and robust investment banking activity, reflecting overall market optimism and the company’s solid operational efficiency.

BlackRock - Analysts expect BlackRock to report growth in earnings and revenue, driven by strong assets under management and increased investor inflows. Favorable market conditions and expanded technology services further support positive expectations for the company’s upcoming financial performance.

China Balance of Trade MAR - If China Balance of Trade MAR exceeds estimates, it could boost Chinese manufacturing equities and the Renminbi. A miss might signal weak global demand. Recent U.S. tariff hikes and property sector stagnation remain significant long-term headwinds.

United States PPI MoM MAR - If United States PPI MoM MAR exceeds estimates, it could pressure equity markets and delay interest rate cuts. Conversely, a lower result would likely support stocks. Investors should watch energy, transportation, and interest-sensitive sectors. Recent Middle East tensions and surging oil prices remain significant risks for future inflation.

~~~ Wednesday 15 Apr ~~~

ASML Holding - Analysts expect ASML to show improved financial performance and significant growth driven by robust AI demand. This is also supported by anticipated increases in production, and strategic progress at key projects and processing facilities.

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co - Analysts expect Contemporary Amperex Technology to report continued growth. This positive outlook is driven by high global demand for electric vehicle and energy storage batteries, alongside the company’s leading market share, and expanding production capacity.

~~~ Thursday 16 Apr ~~~

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company - Analysts expect TSMC to report strong financial results and raise annual guidance. This optimism is driven by surging demand for AI chips from major tech clients, higher pricing for advanced technologies, and improving operational efficiencies across production nodes.

China GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1 - If China GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1 exceeds estimates, it could bolster Chinese equities and emerging markets. Conversely, a miss might pressure regional stocks and prompt central bank easing.

China Industrial Production YoY MAR - If China Industrial Production YoY MAR exceeds estimates, it could bolster manufacturing and mining equities. Conversely, a miss might weaken sentiment for industrial and materials sectors. Middle East tensions and rising commodity prices could impact future output costs.

China Retail Sales YoY MAR - If China Retail Sales YoY MAR exceeds estimates, it could bolster consumer discretionary and automotive sectors while strengthening the Hang Seng index. Conversely, a miss might heighten deflationary concerns.

United Kingdom GDP MoM FEB - If United Kingdom GDP MoM FEB exceeds estimates, it could support the GBP and reduce expectations for imminent interest rate cuts. A miss would likely bolster the case for easing. Investors should monitor consumer-facing sectors and energy prices, as Middle East tensions and recent oil spikes heighten stagflation risks.

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes.

THE AUDIO BRIEF

THE RUNDOWN

European markets rallied this week, driven by optimism over a potential ceasefire in the Middle East, which fueled a relief rally across major indices.

The Euro Stoxx 50 led gains at 5.20%, supported by its broad blue-chip representation of supersector leaders.

France’s CAC 40 rose 4.44%, benefiting from its high concentration in luxury goods and industrials, which often react positively to improved global sentiment.

Spain’s IBEX 35 climbed 4.36% as its heavy banking exposure capitalized on the optimistic economic outlook and robust earnings.

Germany’s DAX 40 increased by 3.85%, bolstered by its strong industrial and technology base.

While the geopolitical news provided a significant tailwind, energy stocks faced pressure as oil prices plunged following the truce reports. Overall, high liquidity and a shift toward risk-on sentiment characterized the week’s performance across these key benchmarks.

MOVERS AND SHAKERS

RISERS

• ASML Holding manufactures photolithography machines for chips and rose 14.02% this week due to strong demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment and AI growth.

• Siemens Energy provides energy technology and services and climbed 13.19% following positive sentiment regarding grid stability solutions and increased renewable energy project commitments.

• Infineon Technologies designs power semiconductors and gained 11.92% as the company benefits from recovering automotive demand and expansion in power management for data centers.

FALLERS

• Rheinmetall is a German defense manufacturer that fell 4.39% as a potential Ukraine ceasefire and peace talks reduced the demand for arms and artillery.

• SAP is a European software firm that dropped 4.02% due to concerns regarding artificial intelligence disruption and slowing growth in its cloud computing backlog.

• Eni is an integrated Italian energy company that declined 3.78% following a plunge in crude oil prices triggered by a U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement.

SECTORS

European equities surged this week as a two-week ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz provided significant relief. Technology and Retail led gains, rising 8.66% and 7.98% respectively, as easing geopolitical tensions boosted growth expectations. Financials jumped 6.95% as banking stocks like UniCredit benefited from improved risk appetite. Industrials rose 6.37%, aided by lower energy costs for manufacturing giants. Conversely, Energy was the sole decliner, falling 0.85% as Brent crude plunged 15% following the truce. Utilities and Health Care saw more modest gains of 1.26% and 2.40% as investors rotated into cyclical sectors.

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Sources: Fiscal.ai, Google Finance, 11 Apr 2026.

THE AUDIO BRIEF

THE RUNDOWN

US equity benchmarks traded up this week as investors balanced geopolitical developments with inflation data. The Nasdaq 100 led gains, rising 3.8% on an advance in information technology and record demand for AI-focused hardware.

The S&P 500 climbed 3.1%, supported by technology strength. Small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 rose 3.5%, benefiting from a temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire that aided domestic-focused firms.

Conversely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a more modest 2.7% increase.

In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.5% for the week. While Canada’s market is heavily weighted toward energy and finance, its gains were slightly more tempered than U.S. peers as investors reacted to a 21% monthly surge in the gasoline index despite overall inflation matching expectations.

Markets remain headline-driven, focused on Middle East negotiations and stabilizing labour data.

MOVERS & SHAKERS

RISERS

• Intel is a semiconductor manufacturer that rose 22.84% following an eight-session winning streak driven by strong server CPU demand and new AI chip partnerships.

• Coherent Corp. provides lasers and optical materials (check out our recent EiC with Mikhail Zverev) and climbed 21.44% after unveiling advances in silicon carbide technology and reporting strong fiscal 2026 earnings.

• Lam Research produces semiconductor manufacturing equipment and gained 19.49% due to record Q2 fiscal 2026 results and unprecedented demand visibility for AI-focused hardware.

FALLERS

• Akamai Technologies is a cloud and cybersecurity company that fell 20.29% as increased competition in cloud infrastructure pressured growth and margin expectations.

• ServiceNow provides enterprise cloud solutions and dropped 18.96% following a UBS downgrade citing weaker demand for non-AI software and shifting corporate budgets.

• Axon Enterprise manufactures public safety technology and declined 16.25% due to legal uncertainty regarding its new headquarters and a wave of analyst price cuts.

  SECTORS

Major U.S. sectors rallied this week following a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. The Information Technology sector rose 4.27% as record revenues from Taiwan Semiconductor and strong AI chip demand boosted semiconductors. Industrials gained 4.20% due to firmer underlying demand for equipment. Conversely, Energy fell 4.59% as crude oil prices dropped 13% for the week following the de-escalation of conflict. Consumer Staples declined 0.35% as investors rotated into cyclical sectors, while Financials added 1.78% ahead of the first-quarter earnings season. Real Estate climbed 2.54% as Treasury yields retreated from recent highs.

Q&A with co-author John D. Turner | Thursday 30th April 2:30pm - 3:00pm (UK time)

REGISTER HERE

✅ Have bubbles been concerning you lately?

✅ Wouldn’t you like a professor who specialises in bubbles to review history and give you a method for identifying them?

✅ Wouldn’t you like the opportunity to put your questions to that professor?

If you answered YES to the above then BREAKINGWATERS has you covered.

April’s BREAKINGWATERS book is the Financial Times Book of the Year 2020, Boom and Bust and one of its authors, John D. Turner, will join us for an open to anyone Q&A on Thursday April 30th at 2:30pm UKT.

BOOM & BUST

William Quinn and John D. Turner take us on a riveting ride through the history of financial bubbles, visiting, among other places, Paris and London in 1720, Latin America in the 1820s, Melbourne in the 1880s, New York in the 1920s, Tokyo in the 1980s, Silicon Valley in the 1990s and Shanghai in the 2000s. As they do so, they help us understand why bubbles happen, why some have catastrophic economic, social and political consequences whilst others have actually benefited society. They reveal that bubbles start when investors and speculators react to new technology or political initiatives, showing that our ability to predict future bubbles will ultimately come down to being able to predict these sparks.

That gives us 3 weeks to read - 13 pages a day.

Available in paperback, hardback, kindle and audiobook formats.

We can do this!

Look forward to reading along and chatting with John together!

REGISTER HERE

Invite details available on registration.

That’s how long it took before 2 out of 3 of BREAKINGWATERS EiC guest, Mikhail Zverev’s “next big things” got serious validation. n.b. this is rare

During our recent EiC session - “What’s the Next Big Thing?” Mikhail laid out 3 distinct areas he sees as real, happening and technologically inevitable.

Part 1 here (YouTube and Spotify) | Part 2 here (YouTube and Spotify)

Two weeks later, per How the Week Broke | North America, the top 3 performers consisted of two photonics companies and a semi-conductor memory company, up c.24%* on average on the back of notably high demand.

(Excuse the handwriting…stlyus on phone)

If you didn’t get to see the session with Mikhail then check it out now - linked above - and, if you want to receive details of future BREAKINGWATERS sessions - the next one is Friday, April 17th - direct to your inbox then subscribe at www.breakingwaters.com.

Note: the information contained in this post and related materials is for educational and information purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.

*Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

AUDIO BRIEF

SUMMARY

Next week (April 6–10) brings a critical wave of earnings and economic reports highlighting bifurcated consumer demand, lingering cost pressures, and resilient travel trends.

Key Reports:

• Metals & Mining (April 6): PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk is poised for improved financial performance, driven by favorable commodity prices and higher production volumes that are helping the company recover from previous losses.

• Apparel & Retail (April 7 & 9): Levi Strauss & Co. expects a year-over-year earnings decline due to cautious consumer discretionary spending, though direct-to-consumer and international sales remain a bright spot. Conversely, Japan’s Fast Retailing Co. projects record performance fueled by international expansion and a consumer recovery in China, while Seven & i Holdings anticipates significant growth from its successful restructuring into a pure convenience store model and robust overseas operations.

• Travel & Leisure (April 8): Delta Air Lines expects year-over-year earnings and revenue growth backed by strong travel demand and premium seat sales.

• Beverages (April 8): Constellation Brands anticipates lower earnings driven by sluggish wine and spirits sales, brewery expansion costs, and higher material costs.

Indirect Themes and Sector Impacts: These reports signal broader market crosscurrents that will likely impact other sectors. Delta’s specific caution regarding elevated labor expenses and rising jet fuel costs could indirectly pressure the broader transportation and energy sectors, as these margin headwinds are rarely isolated to a single airline. The stark divergence in global retail - where US consumer discretionary spending shows signs of caution while Asian and international markets thrive -suggests the broader consumer discretionary sector may continue to face headwinds in the US but tailwinds internationally.

Additionally, Constellation’s report of “sluggish wine and spirits sales” alongside higher material costs may signal shifting consumer preferences and sticky supply-chain inflation that could broadly impact the alcohol and hospitality industries. Finally, PT Merdeka’s positive outlook reflects broader momentum that could lift the global commodities and materials sectors, supported by strong underlying commodity pricing.

TOP 10 GLOBAL EARNINGS RELEASES this WEEK COMING

KEY ECONOMIC PRINTS this WEEK COMING

EARNINGS & ECONOMICS & THEIR READ ACROSS

~~~ Monday 06 Apr ~~~

PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk - Analysts expect improved financial performance for PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk, driven by higher production volumes and favorable commodity prices. They anticipate a recovery from previous losses, supported by strategic project developments and enhanced operational efficiencies across mining assets.

~~~ Tuesday 07 Apr ~~~

Levi Strauss & - Analysts expect Levi Strauss & Co. to report a year-over-year earnings decline despite revenue growth. Projections are influenced by caution regarding consumer spending and discretionary demand, even as international regions and direct-to-consumer sales show continued strength and improved margins.

~~~ Wednesday 08 Apr ~~~

Delta Air Lines - Analysts expect Delta Air Lines to report year-over-year growth in earnings and revenue. This optimism is driven by strong travel demand and premium seat sales, though analysts remain cautious due to rising jet fuel costs and elevated labor expenses.

Constellation Brands - Analysts anticipate Constellation Brands will report lower revenue and earnings. This weakness is driven by sluggish wine and spirits sales after recent divestitures, along with higher material costs and increased spending on brewery expansions.

~~~ Thursday 09 Apr ~~~

Fast Retailing Co - Analysts expect Fast Retailing Co. to report record performance in its upcoming report. This bullish outlook is driven by strong international expansion, particularly a recovery in China, and improved operational efficiencies that have led to upwardly revised profit targets.

Seven & i Holdings Co - Analysts expect Seven & i Holdings to report significant earnings growth. This optimism is driven by successful restructuring into a pure convenience store group, improved merchandise margins, strategic asset optimization, and robust performance in overseas operations despite domestic consumer headwinds.

Japan Consumer Confidence MAR - If Japan Consumer Confidence MAR exceeds estimates, it could bolster the yen and encourage BoJ rate hikes, potentially weighing on export-heavy sectors. Conversely, a miss might support dovish policy. Investors should watch the retail and consumer discretionary sectors, as the Middle East conflict and rising energy costs impact sentiment.

Germany Balance of Trade FEB - If the Germany Balance of Trade exceeds estimates, it could strengthen the Euro and favor industrial and automotive sectors. Conversely, a lower result might signal weak global demand, potentially prompting a more dovish ECB stance. Recent Middle East logistics disruptions and trade tensions with China remain key risks.

United States GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q4 - If the United States GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q4 exceeds estimates, it would likely bolster equity markets and encourage the Fed to maintain higher rates. Conversely, a lower result would favor defensive sectors and interest-sensitive growth stocks. Recent government shutdowns and Middle East conflict remain key volatility drivers.

~~~ Friday 10 Apr ~~~

China Inflation Rate YoY MAR - If the China Inflation Rate YoY MAR exceeds estimates, it could prompt tighter monetary policy, potentially weighing on growth stocks. Conversely, a lower result might encourage easing. Investors should watch the technology and consumer sectors. Recent US-China trade disruptions and shifting supply chains could influence future inflationary pressures.

Canada Unemployment Rate MAR - If the Canada Unemployment Rate exceeds estimates, it could signal economic cooling, potentially leading the central bank to lower rates, benefiting interest-sensitive sectors like utilities and real estate. Conversely, a lower rate might suggest labor tightness. Investors should monitor defense and construction sectors amid Middle East conflict concerns.

United States Inflation Rate YoY MAR - If United States Inflation Rate YoY MAR exceeds estimates, it could pressure the Fed to maintain higher interest rates, potentially hurting growth stocks. A lower reading might support rate cuts. Investors should watch the technology and real estate sectors, as Middle East tensions and rising energy costs impact future data.

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Sources: Fiscal.ai, 5 Apr 2026.

THE AUDIO BRIEF

THE RUNDOWN

The past week saw mixed performance across North American indices as markets navigated geopolitical tensions and shifting economic narratives.

The Nasdaq Composite led gains at 5.2%, bolstered by a late-week rebound in technology stocks despite a cooling of the AI spending narrative that previously drove mega-caps.

The S&P 500 rose 3.8%, though it faced pressure from its heavy 34.3% concentration in Information Technology.

The Russell 2000 increased 4.8%, benefiting from its domestic focus as small-cap companies remain sensitive to U.S. consumer spending. The Dow Jones Industrial Average grew 2.8%, showing more resilience due to its blue-chip composition.

In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite rose 3.7%, supported by its significant exposure to the energy and finance sectors, which saw positive movement amid surging oil prices and a trend of diversification away from American assets.

However, gains across all markets were tempered late in the week by renewed geopolitical uncertainty regarding Iran.

MOVERS & SHAKERS

RISERS

• Lumentum (discussed recently in our EiC with Mikhail Zverev, Amati Global Innovation Fund) manufactures optical and photonic products and rose 26.28% this week following news of a new manufacturing facility to produce advanced lasers for AI.

• Ciena is a networking systems and software provider that climbed 22.67% due to strong demand for high-speed connectivity and its leadership in coherent optics (optics also discussed in our session with Mikhail).

• Sandisk designs and manufactures flash memory products and gained 22.55% as the company benefits from rapid growth and construction in the data center market.

FALLERS

• Nike, Inc. is an athletic footwear and apparel designer that fell 13.76% after disappointing Q4 guidance and a lowered revenue outlook for the fiscal year.

• McCormick & Company is a global spice and flavor manufacturer that dropped 9.07% as analysts lowered price targets following broader concerns about consumer spending.

• Constellation Energy is a leading carbon-free energy producer that declined 8.64% due to regulatory uncertainty and a broader downturn in the utility sector.

  SECTORS

Technology (6.66%) and Industrials (4.57%) led the rebound as hopes for Middle East de-escalation fueled a relief rally and strong ISM manufacturing data (52.7) signaled economic resilience. Real Estate (3.48%) and Communications (3.46%) also gained as the 10-year Treasury yield retreated to 4.30%. Conversely, Energy fell 4.37% despite high oil prices, as markets priced in a potential end to the Iran crisis and a return to lower futures prices. Consumer Staples remained nearly flat (0.01%) as investors shifted from defensive positions back into growth sectors following five weeks of declines.

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes.

THE AUDIO BRIEF

THE RUNDOWN

European markets saw gains this past week despite late-session volatility. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 2.73%, while the DAX 40 gained 2.68%, supported by a recovery in industrial technology and defense sectors, even as a 3.3% slip in Deutsche Telekom weighed on Germany’s index.

The IBEX Spain led with a 3.46% increase, buoyed by a strong banking sector that continues to benefit from interest rate normalization.

The CAC 40 increased 2.44%, driven by a resilient luxury sector and global demand for its aerospace components.

However, gains were tempered mid-week by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over oil maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, which triggered a pivot away from speculative tech assets and pressured financial institutions like BNP Paribas and UniCredit. Broad institutional buying and reduced geopolitical risk premiums earlier in the week provided the primary foundation for these positive returns.

MOVERS AND SHAKERS

RISERS

• Rheinmetall is a German defense manufacturer that rose 11.42% due to record military spending in Europe and a growing ammunition and combat vehicle order backlog.

• Argenx is a global immunology company that gained 5.58% following strong product sales for its autoimmune treatments and positive updates to its drug pipeline.

• Siemens Energy is an energy technology provider that climbed 5.42% after announcing a $1 billion investment to expand power grid infrastructure and manufacturing capacity.

FALLERS

• Deutsche Telekom is a telecommunications provider that fell 4.62% after its 2025 earnings forecast and German business growth outlook missed analyst expectations.

• BASF is a global chemical manufacturer that dropped 3.89% as its 2026 earnings outlook fell below estimates amid challenging demand and foreign exchange headwinds.

• EssilorLuxottica is an eyewear and lens producer that declined 3.26% due to rising competitive risks from technology companies and a patent infringement lawsuit.

SECTORS

Sectors rebounded last week as hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East fueled a relief rally. Industrials led gains, rising 4.49%, while Basic Resources followed at 4.47% as investors rotated into lagging sectors. Technology rose 3.57%, benefiting from continued AI infrastructure buildout. Financials climbed 4.12% despite earlier credit concerns. Conversely, Energy fell 0.11% as news of a potential deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz caused oil prices to ease from recent peaks. Utilities and Health Care rose 3.69% and 2.10%, respectively, as investors sought defensive positioning amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and sticky inflation.

Friday 17th April 3pm - 3:45pm (UK time)

CLICK HERE TO REGISTER

All in…. on the UK?

Grab a coffee, a tea, a treat or whatever your fancy is and join us for a conversation with Alyx Wood, CIO of Kernow Asset Management!

Alyx co-founded Kernow (Cornish for the Celtic nation of Cornwall) just over 6 years ago with a distinctly contrarian conviction - the UK, long and short.

Long out of favour with investors, this lack of attention has made the UK overlooked and underestimated according to Wood. He firmly believes it is a rich hunting ground for equity investment opportunities on both sides of the dial. In keeping with their contrarian nature too, Kernow was not founded in the city, but right out on the edge of Cornwall. Contrarian thinkers need to avoid consensus conversations.

They have had a particularly strong year and were awarded Best Performing UK Equity Long/Short Fund at The Hedge Fund Journal Performance Awards 2025. It is sure to be an exciting conversation.

Invite details sent on registration.

CLICK HERE TO REGISTER

Note: None of the material or content contained herein constitutes investment advice. It is solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

AUDIO BRIEF

SUMMARY

The upcoming week of March 30 to April 3 brings crucial earnings and economic data that will ripple across global markets.

In earnings, consumer and retail face mixed signals: NIKE expects an earnings decline due to tariff and Chinese recovery concerns, pressuring global discretionary sectors, whereas China Tourism Group’s duty-free growth signals stabilization for luxury and aviation. Technology sees significant upside, as GigaDevice Semiconductor is poised to beat estimates, boosting AI and semiconductor infrastructure. Meanwhile, SAIC Motor’s strong EV export sales highlight momentum for global EV auto and emerging market supply chains. Financials and industrials look steady, with ICBC and Midea Group projecting stable margins that support the broader banking and home appliance sectors.

On the economic front, inflation and manufacturing metrics will heavily dictate central bank policies. Euro Area and German inflation prints (forecasted at 2.70% and 2.60%) could force the ECB to hike rates, pressuring European equities, while lower readings would support a rate-cutting cycle. Similarly, strong Chinese PMIs could bolster global materials and industrials, while misses would pressure Asian equities amidst ongoing trade tensions.

Finally, US labor and consumer data will be pivotal for the Federal Reserve. A tight labor market - reflected by high JOLTs (6.7M), low unemployment (4.50%), and strong non-farm payrolls (50K) - could keep rates “higher for longer,” weighing on tech and growth stocks. Conversely, signs of labor cooling or weaker retail sales (forecasted at 0.30%) would fuel rate-cut hopes, directly benefiting interest-sensitive sectors and consumer discretionary markets

TOP 10 GLOBAL EARNINGS RELEASES this WEEK COMING

KEY ECONOMIC PRINTS this WEEK COMING

EARNINGS, ECONOMICS & THEIR READ ACROSS

~~~ Monday 30 Mar ~~~

China Tourism Group - Analysts expect China Tourism Group to face short-term pressure despite recovering travel. Growth is driven by expanded duty-free operations and increased inbound tourism. This indicates positive read-across for the broader aviation, hospitality, and luxury retail sectors as consumer spending and infrastructure stabilize.

Germany Inflation Rate YoY Prel MAR - A high Germany Inflation Rate YoY Prel MAR reading could lead the ECB to raise rates, potentially weighing on German equities. Conversely, lower inflation might support a rate-cutting cycle. Investors should monitor the automotive and manufacturing sectors, as trade tensions and Middle East conflict risk further inflationary pressure.

~~~ Tuesday 31 Mar ~~~

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China - Analysts expect marginal net profit growth. This outlook is driven by anticipated gains from investments, stabilizing margins, and credit growth. This suggests positive read-across for the broader banking sector and international trade finance infrastructure.

Midea Group Co - Analysts expect steady Midea performance, supported by stable margins and credit growth. Positive sentiment stems from its strong position in consumer appliances and improved asset quality. This suggests positive read-across for the global home appliance sector and industrial automation infrastructure.

NIKE - Analysts expect a year-over-year decline in earnings with flat revenue. Concerns include China’s recovery and tariff impacts. This could suggest negative read-across for global consumer discretionary sectors and firms exposed to Chinese industrial demand and international trade volatility.

GigaDevice Semiconductor - Analysts expect strong GigaDevice growth, driven by higher expectations and a history of exceeding estimates. This suggests positive read-across for the semiconductor memory cycle and AI computing infrastructure, potentially benefiting storage and microcontroller peers as industry supply-demand dynamics improve.

China NBS Manufacturing PMI MAR - If the China NBS Manufacturing PMI exceeds estimates, it could bolster global materials and industrial sectors. Conversely, a miss might pressure Asian equities. Investors should monitor large-cap industrials and the trade-sensitive tech sector. Recent Middle East tensions and shifting export demand remain significant headwinds for future factory activity.

Euro Inflation Rate YoY Flash MAR - If Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash MAR exceeds estimates, the ECB might hike rates, pressuring growth equities. A lower result could support current rates, aiding banking and consumer sectors. Recent Middle East conflict and energy supply disruptions at Ras Laffan significantly impact these future inflation readings.

JOLTs Job Openings FEB - High United States JOLTs Job Openings would suggest labor tightness, potentially prompting the Fed to maintain higher rates, pressuring growth equities. Lower results could signal cooling, supporting rate-cut hopes. Investors should watch the healthcare and professional services sectors. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could impact future hiring.

Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q1 - If the Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index exceeds estimates, it could signal economic strength, potentially prompting the Bank of Japan to raise rates, which might pressure growth stocks. Conversely, a lower result would likely support continued easing. Investors should monitor the banking and export sectors, especially given recent yen volatility.

~~~ Wednesday 01 Apr ~~~

China Longyuan Power - Analysts expect steady growth in earnings and revenue. This positive outlook is driven by robust renewable energy expansion and improved operational efficiency. This suggests positive read-across for the broader utilities sector and renewable energy equipment manufacturers.

ICON Public Limited - Analysts expect year-over-year declines in earnings and revenue due to market volatility and R&D spending slowdowns. This indicates negative read-across for the clinical research organization sector and broader life sciences tools industry as pharmaceutical outsourcing and financial reporting scrutiny intensify.

China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI MAR - If China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI exceeds estimates, it could boost global risk appetite and emerging market equities. Conversely, a lower result would likely pressure industrial sectors. Investors should focus on private enterprises and high-tech manufacturing, as recent trade tensions and domestic demand shifts continue to impact these metrics.

US Retail Sales MoM FEB - Stronger United States Retail Sales MoM FEB could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates, potentially weighing on growth stocks. Conversely, weaker data might support rate cuts, benefiting the consumer discretionary sector. Recent shifts toward value and “choiceful” spending habits among shoppers continue to influence these retail trends.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI MAR - If the United States ISM Manufacturing PMI exceeds estimates, it could bolster industrial equities and delay rate cuts. Conversely, a lower result would likely support defensive sectors. Middle East conflict and rising energy costs could impact future readings, making global energy and manufacturing sectors key areas of interest.

~~~ Thursday 02 Apr ~~~

SAIC Motor Corporation - Analysts expect SAIC Motor to report growth driven by strong export sales and electric vehicle demand. This suggests a positive read-across for the global automotive sector, particularly regarding new energy vehicle adoption and international supply chain expansion in emerging markets.

~~~ Friday 03 Apr ~~~

US Non Farm Payrolls MAR - If United States Non Farm Payrolls exceed estimates, equity markets could face pressure from higher interest rate expectations. Conversely, a lower result might support rate cuts, benefiting growth sectors. Middle East tensions and strikes in healthcare could impact this metric or future readings.

US Unemployment Rate MAR - If the United States Unemployment Rate MAR exceeds estimates, it could signal economic cooling, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts, which would benefit interest-sensitive sectors like technology. Conversely, a lower-than-expected rate would support higher-for-longer rates. Recent Middle East tensions and oil price shocks remain key risks.